Wisconsin
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
15  Malachy Schrobilgen SO 31:11
62  Michael VanVoorhis SR 31:39
74  Morgan McDonald FR 31:44
117  Joe Hardy FR 31:52
139  Carl Hirsch FR 31:57
173  Ryan Kromer FR 32:04
218  Joe McAsey SO 32:13
967  Russell Sandvold SO 33:36
1,318  Troy Smith FR 34:04
1,784  Sam Hacker JR 34:41
2,184  Austin Mudd SR 35:19
National Rank #9 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 0.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 21.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 63.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 97.3%


Regional Champion 66.2%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Malachy Schrobilgen Michael VanVoorhis Morgan McDonald Joe Hardy Carl Hirsch Ryan Kromer Joe McAsey Russell Sandvold Troy Smith Sam Hacker Austin Mudd
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/04 619 31:30 31:53 32:11 32:26 32:29 33:02
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 327 31:26 31:20 31:39 31:36 31:50 32:02 32:07
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 34:05 34:03 34:41 35:19
Big Ten Conference Championship 11/02 353 31:11 31:15 31:40 31:57 31:51 32:03 32:19
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/14 519 31:32 31:59 32:01 32:01 32:01 32:05 32:05
NCAA Championship 11/22 397 30:51 31:58 31:39 31:58 31:55 31:51 32:08





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 9.5 312 0.3 2.1 4.6 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.1 8.8 8.0 8.0 6.3 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.5 57 66.2 22.8 8.1 2.6 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Malachy Schrobilgen 100% 18.7 1.3 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7
Michael VanVoorhis 100.0% 67.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7
Morgan McDonald 100.0% 77.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Joe Hardy 100.0% 102.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Carl Hirsch 100.0% 113.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Ryan Kromer 100.0% 133.7 0.0
Joe McAsey 100.0% 156.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Malachy Schrobilgen 2.4 24.0 20.2 15.0 10.6 7.7 5.1 3.4 3.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Michael VanVoorhis 8.6 0.4 1.6 4.2 6.7 9.1 9.3 8.1 6.6 6.1 5.7 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9
Morgan McDonald 10.3 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.0 6.1 7.8 7.9 7.5 6.6 5.8 4.6 5.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.0
Joe Hardy 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.7 4.6 5.0 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.9 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8
Carl Hirsch 16.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.2 4.8 4.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.5 4.3 3.6 4.2 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 1.9
Ryan Kromer 20.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.9
Joe McAsey 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.1 3.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 66.2% 100.0% 66.2 66.2 1
2 22.8% 100.0% 22.8 22.8 2
3 8.1% 100.0% 7.7 0.4 8.1 3
4 2.6% 100.0% 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6 4
5 0.3% 92.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 100.0% 66.2 22.8 7.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 89.0 11.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Portland 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.3% 2.0 2.0
BYU 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 96.3% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Michigan State 90.5% 2.0 1.8
Indiana 83.4% 2.0 1.7
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 2.0 0.7
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 2.0 0.2
Penn State 6.9% 1.0 0.1
Mid. Tenn. State 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.4
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 26.0