Michigan State
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
89  Sherod Hardt JR 31:47
131  Caleb Rhynard SR 31:58
141  TJ Carey JR 32:00
209  Ryan Robinson FR 32:17
274  Clark Ruiz JR 32:28
296  Max Benoit SO 32:32
352  Andrew Cusmano SR 32:40
357  Nick Soter JR 32:41
380  Chris Collier SR 32:45
National Rank #26 of 308
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 92.1%
Most Likely Finish 23rd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 6.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 43.6%


Regional Champion 13.9%
Top 5 in Regional 96.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sherod Hardt Caleb Rhynard TJ Carey Ryan Robinson Clark Ruiz Max Benoit Andrew Cusmano Nick Soter Chris Collier
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 501 31:50 31:38 31:41 32:50 31:53 32:23 33:14 32:22
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 668 32:02 32:26 32:00 32:15 32:19 32:17 32:38
Big Ten Championships 11/01 641 32:07 32:06 32:07 33:01 31:54 32:44 33:05 32:27 33:41
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 543 31:30 31:43 32:05 32:34 33:00 32:09 32:21
NCAA Championship 11/21 658 31:27 31:39 32:11 32:53 32:54 33:19 32:56





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 92.1% 20.3 498 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.2 4.6 5.8 5.4 6.2 5.0 5.6 5.1 5.2 4.1 3.2 2.2 0.8
Region Championship 100% 2.7 102 13.9 42.6 21.7 12.1 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sherod Hardt 92.7% 80.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Caleb Rhynard 92.1% 106.8 0.0 0.0
TJ Carey 92.1% 109.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ryan Robinson 92.1% 153.4
Clark Ruiz 92.1% 175.0
Max Benoit 92.1% 183.0
Andrew Cusmano 92.1% 198.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sherod Hardt 9.2 0.7 2.2 4.8 6.1 7.1 7.8 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9
Caleb Rhynard 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9
TJ Carey 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.9 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.9
Ryan Robinson 25.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2
Clark Ruiz 32.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.3 2.9
Max Benoit 35.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
Andrew Cusmano 41.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 13.9% 100.0% 13.9 13.9 1
2 42.6% 100.0% 42.6 42.6 2
3 21.7% 99.4% 1.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 21.6 3
4 12.1% 98.5% 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 12.0 4
5 6.2% 31.1% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 4.3 1.9 5
6 2.5% 4.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.1 6
7 0.8% 2.6% 0.0 0.8 0.0 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 92.1% 13.9 42.6 1.0 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.1 7.9 56.5 35.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Washington 77.6% 1.0 0.8
Eastern Kentucky 65.9% 1.0 0.7
Indiana 61.1% 1.0 0.6
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Colorado St. 53.4% 1.0 0.5
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Southern Utah 36.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
California 23.4% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Providence 14.1% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 2.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 2.0 0.1
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 2.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 7.7
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 14.0