Colorado
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
17  John Dressel SO 31:16
27  Ben Saarel SR 31:23
30  Joe Klecker FR 31:25
47  Ryan Forsyth SO 31:34
52  Zach Perrin JR 31:35
128  Reilly Friedman FR 31:57
229  Adam Peterman JR 32:19
255  Christian Martin JR 32:23
307  Ethan Gonzales SO 32:31
378  Reilly Freidman FR 32:41
430  Paul Miller SO 32:48
919  Chris Herrick SO 33:36
1,636  Justice Ramos FR 34:36
National Rank #5 of 312
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.4%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 11.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 62.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 92.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.3%


Regional Champion 26.6%
Top 5 in Regional 99.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating John Dressel Ben Saarel Joe Klecker Ryan Forsyth Zach Perrin Reilly Friedman Adam Peterman Christian Martin Ethan Gonzales Reilly Freidman Paul Miller
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/01 416 31:02 31:30 31:19 32:12 32:24 33:05 33:01
Bradley "Pink" Classic (Red) 10/14 979 32:21 32:23 32:39
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 362 31:41 31:42 31:37 31:29 31:45 32:22 32:13
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 174 30:58 30:53 31:42 31:22 30:54 31:58 32:23 33:00
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 327 31:18 31:44 31:17 31:51 31:35 32:08 32:33





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.4% 5.0 198 11.3 12.2 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.3 7.0 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.2 64 26.6 36.3 27.0 8.3 1.4 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
John Dressel 99.5% 23.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.4
Ben Saarel 99.1% 33.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6
Joe Klecker 99.3% 34.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5
Ryan Forsyth 98.8% 52.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3
Zach Perrin 98.8% 56.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0
Reilly Friedman 98.4% 109.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Adam Peterman 98.4% 163.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
John Dressel 5.7 7.1 12.7 11.0 8.8 6.6 5.9 4.9 4.8 3.8 3.7 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5
Ben Saarel 8.5 2.1 5.2 6.7 8.1 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.0 4.8 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.4 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.2
Joe Klecker 9.5 1.7 4.1 6.3 5.8 6.7 6.4 6.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.8 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.1
Ryan Forsyth 14.4 0.2 0.3 1.5 2.2 4.3 4.3 5.0 4.4 5.4 4.6 4.6 5.0 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.9
Zach Perrin 14.7 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.4 4.9 4.6 5.1 5.2 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.3 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.2 2.9 2.1 2.8 1.8 2.1 1.9
Reilly Friedman 27.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.8 3.0 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.6
Adam Peterman 40.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 1.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 26.6% 100.0% 26.6 26.6 1
2 36.3% 100.0% 36.3 36.3 2
3 27.0% 97.6% 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.3 3.2 3.7 0.3 0.7 26.4 3
4 8.3% 93.9% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 7.8 4
5 1.4% 92.9% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 5
6 0.4% 14.3% 0.1 0.3 0.1 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 98.4% 26.6 36.3 1.4 0.9 2.0 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 4.3 4.6 0.9 1.7 62.9 35.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 99.9% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 95.5% 1.0 1.0
UTEP 82.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Oregon 72.7% 1.0 0.7
Michigan 66.4% 1.0 0.7
Indiana 23.1% 1.0 0.2
Washington 16.7% 1.0 0.2
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Missouri 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.5
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 9.0