Penn
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
115  Nicholas Tuck SR 31:54
164  Brendan Shearn SR 32:06
368  Christopher Luciano JR 32:40
388  Christopher Hatler SR 32:42
511  Patrick Hally JR 32:56
543  Ross Wilson JR 32:59
616  Kevin Monogue SO 33:08
677  Aaron Groff FR 33:15
868  William Daly FR 33:33
882  Sam Webb SO 33:33
923  Thomas Connelly JR 33:37
1,034  Colin Daly FR 33:47
1,054  Lyle Wistar SR 33:49
1,617  Kurt Convey SO 34:34
1,879  Mitchell Poynter FR 34:56
1,972  Robert Klopf SO 35:05
2,015  Andrew Hallly FR 35:10
2,090  Thomas Mulroy JR 35:20
2,255  Joshua Chazin FR 35:40
National Rank #45 of 312
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #3 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 40.9%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.2%


Regional Champion 7.6%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Nicholas Tuck Brendan Shearn Christopher Luciano Christopher Hatler Patrick Hally Ross Wilson Kevin Monogue Aaron Groff William Daly Sam Webb Thomas Connelly
Paul Short Invitational (Gold) 10/01 753 31:56 32:07 32:30 32:50 32:30 32:41 33:18 33:51
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 677 31:47 31:39 32:15 32:31 33:10 32:59 34:32
Princeton Invitational 10/15 1120 33:15 33:21 33:24 33:25
Ivy League Championship 10/29 605 31:54 31:56 32:09 32:09 32:14 32:53 32:37 33:12 33:27 33:16
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/11 901 32:18 32:26 33:33 32:48 33:18 32:58 32:47





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 40.9% 27.9 684 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.2 8.7 5.7
Region Championship 100% 3.0 96 7.6 22.7 30.1 37.9 1.4 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicholas Tuck 80.1% 98.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Brendan Shearn 65.9% 125.5
Christopher Luciano 41.1% 197.3
Christopher Hatler 40.9% 202.0
Patrick Hally 40.9% 221.0
Ross Wilson 40.9% 223.0
Kevin Monogue 41.3% 232.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicholas Tuck 4.0 3.1 17.7 16.9 12.5 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.7 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
Brendan Shearn 6.8 0.6 5.3 8.0 12.1 9.9 8.3 7.1 5.4 5.7 4.6 3.1 4.0 2.6 2.3 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.1
Christopher Luciano 24.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 2.6
Christopher Hatler 25.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.4 4.2 4.3 3.2 2.6
Patrick Hally 33.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.5 3.3
Ross Wilson 35.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.6
Kevin Monogue 42.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 7.6% 100.0% 7.6 7.6 1
2 22.7% 100.0% 22.7 22.7 2
3 30.1% 23.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.3 2.8 22.9 7.2 3
4 37.9% 8.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.7 34.6 3.4 4
5 1.4% 1.4 5
6 0.3% 0.3 6
7 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 40.9% 7.6 22.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.1 0.5 3.5 59.2 30.3 10.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Princeton 43.8% 2.0 0.9
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.7% 3.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.7% 2.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 10.0