Men - Women
NCAA Championship Selection
2015 - 2016 - 2017



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of each regional race. After each simulation, the teams advancing to the NCAA Division I Championship are selected using the process that the NCAA uses to select the teams. More information can be found in the methodology page. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.


RankSchoolAdvancesAutoAt Large Auto Bid At Large
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 Arkansas 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0
2 Northern Arizona 100.0% 81.6% 18.5% 53.0 28.6 14.3 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1
3 Syracuse 100.0% 99.9% 0.2% 92.0 7.9 0.1 0.1 0.1
4 Stanford 100.0% 88.1% 11.9% 67.0 21.1 4.8 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
5 Colorado 98.4% 62.9% 35.5% 26.6 36.3 1.4 0.9 2.0 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 4.3 4.6 0.9
6 BYU 99.9% 49.0% 50.9% 19.5 29.5 34.6 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5
7 Oregon 97.7% 44.8% 52.9% 13.9 30.9 5.4 6.0 5.4 4.1 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.0
8 Portland 99.3% 37.2% 62.2% 12.0 25.2 11.6 18.2 9.4 5.9 4.0 2.7 2.3 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.2
9 UCLA 97.4% 20.5% 76.9% 5.9 14.7 7.7 18.3 14.2 7.4 5.6 4.6 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0
10 UTEP 94.9% 5.0% 90.0% 0.9 4.1 0.7 1.2 3.6 6.2 5.9 8.3 8.3 11.4 12.4 9.4 8.7 8.0 6.3
11 Iona 100.0% 94.7% 5.3% 8.0 86.7 1.4 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
12 Mississippi 100.0% 99.9% 0.1% 95.1 4.8 0.1 0.1
13 Wisconsin 99.5% 83.8% 15.8% 61.7 22.1 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
14 Boise State 93.4% 7.1% 86.3% 1.1 6.0 0.8 4.6 10.5 14.1 14.6 10.2 7.8 5.3 4.5 3.4 3.3 3.8 3.8
15 Colorado St. 91.9% 1.6% 90.4% 0.2 1.4 0.7 3.3 5.9 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.3 7.3 8.5 8.7 7.9 6.6 6.7
16 Iowa State 95.9% 73.0% 22.9% 44.2 28.9 4.9 7.5 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9
17 Washington St. 84.1% 2.5% 81.6% 0.3 2.3 1.8 4.9 9.3 11.3 12.7 10.7 6.8 5.8 3.5 3.8 4.1 2.9 4.2
18 North Carolina St. 82.9% 79.6% 3.3% 49.4 30.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4
19 Oklahoma State 82.1% 69.3% 12.8% 37.9 31.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7
20 Michigan State 95.3% 49.7% 45.6% 18.2 31.5 0.8 1.7 3.6 4.7 4.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 3.3 4.2 4.4 3.0 2.9
21 Eastern Kentucky 87.6% 62.7% 25.0% 29.6 33.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 5.3
22 Michigan 79.4% 37.0% 42.4% 11.7 25.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 3.6 5.5 4.9 5.8 7.6 7.5
23 Virginia 50.8% 49.8% 1.0% 20.2 29.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2
24 Tulsa 74.7% 24.0% 50.7% 8.9 15.1 0.3 1.6 2.1 3.5 3.3 4.5 6.1 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.3 5.3 5.8
25 Southern Utah 79.3% 0.1% 79.2% 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.7 5.8 6.5 8.3 10.6 10.9 10.1 8.2 7.8
26 Indiana 50.9% 22.5% 28.4% 7.0 15.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.2 4.7 1.3
27 Air Force 26.4% 0.0% 26.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.4 4.3 3.9 3.6 2.1
28 Mid. Tenn. State 81.0% 81.0% 0.0% 4.8 76.3
29 California 15.9% 0.0% 15.9% 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 0.7
30 Eastern Michigan 56.4% 7.0% 49.4% 1.5 5.5 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 3.0 3.7 3.4 4.1 7.2 6.7 5.6 10.4
31 Georgetown 99.5% 87.9% 11.6% 68.4 19.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.3
32 Bradley 20.3% 9.5% 10.8% 2.3 7.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.7 0.4
33 Washington 23.8% 0.0% 23.8% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.9 6.1
34 Illinois 49.6% 20.8% 28.8% 6.0 14.8 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.1 3.4 5.2 8.6
35 Providence 79.1% 3.2% 75.9% 3.2 2.9 7.8 9.3 9.7 10.1 9.3 7.8 6.4 4.5 3.8 2.2 1.5 0.8
36 San Francisco 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4
37 Campbell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
38 Cal Poly 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
39 Furman 6.6% 4.4% 2.2% 0.5 3.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
40 Minnesota 15.7% 3.1% 12.6% 0.7 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.0 3.7
41 Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
42 Columbia 19.9% 1.6% 18.3% 1.6 0.9 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6
43 Princeton 45.3% 43.8% 1.5% 13.3 30.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
44 Kentucky 3.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.4 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
45 Penn 40.9% 30.3% 10.6% 7.6 22.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.1 0.5 3.5
46 Dartmouth 8.0% 0.7% 7.4% 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
47 Villanova 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
48 Florida State 16.0% 14.0% 2.0% 0.2 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.2
49 Navy 41.0% 38.0% 3.0% 10.8 27.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
50 South Dakota St. 1.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
51 Texas 56.7% 56.7% 0.0% 56.7
52 Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4
53 Purdue 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2
54 Georgia 4.7% 4.7% 0.1% 4.7 0.1
55 Texas A&M 43.0% 43.0% 0.0% 43.0
56 Utah State 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1
57 Virginia Tech 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1
58 Oklahoma 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
59 Kansas 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
60 Brown 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
61 New Mexico 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.1
62 Texas Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
63 Missouri 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
64 Texas-Arlington 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2
65 Ohio State 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1
66 Butler 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1
67 Yale 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
68 Cornell 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1
69 Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
70 IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
71 Gonzaga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
72 North Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
73 Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
74 Weber State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
75 Penn State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
76 Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
77 San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
78 William and Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
79 Arizona State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
80 UL-Lafayette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
81 Harvard 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
82 Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
83 UC Santa Barbara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
84 Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
85 Boston U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
86 Wichita State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
87 St. Mary's (Cal.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
88 Utah Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
89 Army West Point 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
90 Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
91 Liberty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
92 Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
93 Dayton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
94 Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
95 Stephen F. Austin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
96 Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
97 Baylor 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2
98 Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
99 Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
100 Lamar 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
101 Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
102 Buffalo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
103 Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
104 Morehead State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
105 Oakland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
106 Miami (Ohio) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
107 Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
108 UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
109 Maine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
110 Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
111 Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
112 North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
113 Ohio U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
114 Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
115 Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
116 Bucknell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
117 Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
118 Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
119 Illinois State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
120 Indiana State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
121 Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
122 Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
123 Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
124 Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
125 North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
126 Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
127 La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
128 Duke 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
129 Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
130 Montana State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
131 Norfolk State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
132 Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
133 Marquette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
134 Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
135 St. Joseph's (Pa.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
136 Maryland-Eastern Shore 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
137 George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
138 UC Irvine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
139 Albany 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
140 Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
141 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
142 Kansas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
143 Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
144 Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
145 Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
146 Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
147 Texas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
148 Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
149 Loyola (Ill.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
150 McNeese State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
151 Lehigh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
152 Central Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
153 Quinnipiac 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
154 Akron 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
155 LSU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
156 Manhattan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
157 Sacred Heart 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
158 Appalachian State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
159 Bowling Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
160 SIU-Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
161 Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
162 Detroit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
163 Northern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
164 UC Davis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
165 North Dakota St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
166 Sam Houston St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
167 Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
168 Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
169 Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
170 Marist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
171 Idaho State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
172 Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
173 Seattle U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
174 East Tenn. St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
175 Toledo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
176 UMass Amherst 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
177 Siena 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
178 Tennessee-Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
179 Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
180 St. Francis (Pa.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
181 George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
182 UT-Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
183 New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
184 South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
185 Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
186 Vermont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
187 Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
188 Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
189 East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
190 New Mexico St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
191 DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
192 Va. Military Institute 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
193 Texas A&M-CC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
194 UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
195 Wis.-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
196 Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
197 Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
198 Portland State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
199 Monmouth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
200 Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
201 Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
202 American 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
203 UMBC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
204 Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
205 Arkansas-Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
206 Creighton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
207 Kent State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
208 High Point 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
209 Miss State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
210 Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
211 Sacramento St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
212 Fresno State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
213 Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
214 Xavier (Ohio) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
215 Radford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
216 Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
217 San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
218 Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
219 Binghamton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
220 Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
221 UTSA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
222 Murray State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
223 North Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
224 SE Missouri 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
225 Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
226 Montana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
227 UL-Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
228 Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
229 IPFW 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
230 Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
231 South Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
232 Arkansas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
233 Wright State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
234 Col. of Charleston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
235 Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
236 Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
237 UNC-Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
238 Miami 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
239 Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
240 Winthrop 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
241 Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
242 Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
243 USC Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
244 UNC-Asheville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
245 Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
246 Hartford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
247 Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
248 N. Carolina A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
249 Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
250 Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
251 Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
252 Wis.-Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
253 Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
254 Fairfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
255 VCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
256 South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
257 Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
258 Colgate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
259 Grambling 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
260 Wagner 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
261 Kennesaw State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
262 Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
263 Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
264 Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
265 Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
266 Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
267 Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
268 Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
269 St. Francis (N.Y.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
270 Bryant 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
271 SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
272 TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
273 Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
274 Loyola (Md.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
275 Lafayette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
276 Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
277 Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
278 New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
279 New Jersey Institute 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
280 Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
281 Bethune-Cookman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
282 Coppin State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
283 Savannah State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
284 Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
285 Jackson State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
286 St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
287 Florida Int'l 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
288 UNC-Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
289 Texas Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
290 Charleston Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
291 Alabama State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
292 Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
293 Longwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
294 Gardner-Webb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
295 Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
296 Fairleigh Dickinson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
297 Presbyterian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
298 Chicago State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
299 Oral Roberts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
300 Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
301 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
302 N.C. Central 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
303 Delaware State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
304 Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
305 Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
306 Alcorn State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
307 Howard 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
308 Morgan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
309 St. Peter's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
310 South Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
311 Nicholls State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%