BYU
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
9  Connor McMillan JR 30:56
11  Rory Linkletter JR 31:00
14  Casey Clinger FR 31:03
22  Daniel Carney JR 31:15
35  Clayton Young JR 31:25
50  Jonathan Harper SR 31:30
56  Kramer Morton FR 31:31
114  Brayden McLelland SO 31:51
132  Clayson Shumway FR 31:55
180  Jacob Heslington SO 32:05
182  Spencer Hanson SR 32:05
378  Matt Owens FR 32:36
1,481  Alex Hedquist SO 34:17
National Rank #2 of 315
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 48.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 98.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 99.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 49.6%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Connor McMillan Rory Linkletter Casey Clinger Daniel Carney Clayton Young Jonathan Harper Kramer Morton Brayden McLelland Clayson Shumway Jacob Heslington Spencer Hanson
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 705 31:48 31:50 31:56
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 149 31:01 30:54 31:06 31:17 31:16 31:33 31:48
West Coast Conference 10/27 107 30:54 31:02 31:02 31:02 31:02 31:11 31:11 31:56 31:59
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 307 31:05 31:02 31:52 31:40 31:45 32:04 32:35





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.9 97 48.0 33.1 11.1 4.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.6 45 49.6 45.2 4.5 0.6 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor McMillan 100% 11.0 1.1 1.8 4.3 5.3 5.6 6.6 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2
Rory Linkletter 100% 13.0 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.1 4.7 5.3 5.0 5.6 6.0 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.9 1.3
Casey Clinger 100% 15.8 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.9 4.0 4.2 5.3 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.9
Daniel Carney 100% 26.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.7 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9
Clayton Young 100% 42.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.1
Jonathan Harper 100% 51.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4
Kramer Morton 100% 56.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor McMillan 4.2 10.3 13.2 13.1 11.1 10.2 6.6 5.5 4.1 3.7 4.1 2.4 2.0 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4
Rory Linkletter 5.1 7.1 10.0 11.6 11.7 8.9 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5
Casey Clinger 5.9 3.8 6.7 10.4 10.7 10.6 8.5 6.8 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.5 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8
Daniel Carney 10.1 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.0 6.7 7.0 8.0 7.4 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3
Clayton Young 15.3 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.1 5.4 4.9 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.3 3.3 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6
Jonathan Harper 16.9 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.6 5.0 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.6 6.0 4.0 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8
Kramer Morton 18.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.4 2.7 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.2 3.6 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.5 3.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 49.6% 100.0% 49.6 49.6 1
2 45.2% 100.0% 45.2 45.2 2
3 4.5% 100.0% 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.5 3
4 0.6% 100.0% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 49.6 45.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.8 5.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Virginia Tech 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Oregon 88.4% 2.0 1.8
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
Utah State 39.2% 1.0 0.4
Georgetown 31.5% 1.0 0.3
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tennessee 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Campbell 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Georgia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.4
Minimum 6.0
Maximum 13.0