Columbia
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
170  Ryan Thomas SR 32:04
191  Kenny Vasbinder SO 32:07
228  Lucky Schreiner JR 32:14
243  Brian Zabilski JR 32:17
464  Spencer Haik SR 32:44
495  Dylan Tarpey SR 32:50
571  Dan Schumacher JR 32:58
946  Dominic Dyer FR 33:34
1,193  Aidan Goltra SR 33:54
1,245  Tyler Italiano JR 33:59
1,331  Alek Sauer JR 34:06
1,405  Jonathan Lauer FR 34:11
1,429  Chris Thompson JR 34:13
1,540  Solomon Fountain FR 34:23
1,543  Sam Ritz JR 34:23
1,860  Owen Bishop FR 34:53
2,058  Aaron Breene FR 35:14
2,148  Tyler Otterstedt SR 35:25
2,211  Jackson Storey FR 35:34
2,378  Willie Hall SO 36:03
2,449  Brian McGovern SR 36:15
2,630  Jake Caswell SO 36:58
National Rank #37 of 315
Northeast Region Rank #3 of 42
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 4.1%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.2%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ryan Thomas Kenny Vasbinder Lucky Schreiner Brian Zabilski Spencer Haik Dylan Tarpey Dan Schumacher Dominic Dyer Aidan Goltra Tyler Italiano Alek Sauer
Columbia Invite 09/08 1141 33:10 33:19 34:18 33:47
Iona College Meet of Champions 09/15 484 31:29 31:43 32:01 31:40 32:22 32:34
Paul Short Brown 09/29 1264 33:50 33:46 35:21
Sam Bell Invitational 09/30 787 32:07 32:12 32:18 32:30 33:02 33:31
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 920 32:14 32:18 32:54 33:38 34:34 32:56
NYC Metropolitan Championship 10/13 1316 33:53
Princeton Invitational 10/14 1204 34:14 34:09 34:18
Ivy League Championship 10/27 611 31:46 31:56 32:03 32:01 32:43 34:18 33:25 33:03 33:32
Northeast Region Championships 11/10 920 32:36 33:22 32:49 33:02 32:47 32:18





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 4.1% 23.8 597 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Region Championship 100% 3.1 124 0.2 3.7 86.4 7.2 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Thomas 40.8% 120.9
Kenny Vasbinder 32.7% 128.2
Lucky Schreiner 18.7% 145.3
Brian Zabilski 12.9% 141.7
Spencer Haik 4.1% 206.0
Dylan Tarpey 4.1% 226.5
Dan Schumacher 4.1% 228.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Thomas 14.5 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 4.4 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.5 3.8 4.6 4.0 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0
Kenny Vasbinder 15.9 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 3.6 3.9 4.6 4.9 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.5 5.4 4.7 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 1.5 1.9 1.7
Lucky Schreiner 19.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.5 3.5 3.2 4.3 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.0
Brian Zabilski 22.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.0 4.3 3.8 4.5 4.6 4.3 3.1 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.9 2.6
Spencer Haik 41.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3
Dylan Tarpey 47.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.7
Dan Schumacher 55.3 0.1 0.1 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 3.7% 100.0% 3.7 3.7 2
3 86.4% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 86.2 0.2 3
4 7.2% 0.7% 0.1 7.1 0.1 4
5 1.7% 1.7 5
6 0.6% 0.6 6
7 0.4% 0.4 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
Total 100% 4.1% 0.2 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.9 3.9 0.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Bradley 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.3
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0