Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
4  Matthew Baxter SR 30:42
6  Tyler Day JR 30:45
17  Andy Trouard SR 31:06
26  Geordie Beamish SO 31:21
31  Luis Grijalva FR 31:24
55  Peter Lomong JR 31:31
102  Cory Glines SR 31:47
472  Harvey Nelson SR 32:45
937  Cade Burks SO 33:33
1,005  Ryan Wolff JR 33:39
National Rank #1 of 315
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 43.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 97.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 100.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 49.6%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Matthew Baxter Tyler Day Andy Trouard Geordie Beamish Luis Grijalva Peter Lomong Cory Glines Harvey Nelson Cade Burks Ryan Wolff
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 108 30:37 30:38 31:00 31:09 31:19 31:19 32:34 32:42 32:29
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 119 30:50 30:49 30:48 31:13 31:19 31:35 33:23
Big Sky Championship 10/28 203 30:17 30:16 31:05 31:43 31:49 32:34 34:09 34:31
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 221 31:06 31:04 31:34 31:29 31:27 31:43 33:29





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.9 99 43.0 38.2 11.1 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.6 44 49.6 45.7 4.1 0.5 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Matthew Baxter 100% 5.0 9.8 9.9 10.9 10.6 8.6 7.4 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7
Tyler Day 100% 6.4 5.2 8.6 10.5 8.7 8.0 6.5 6.9 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7
Andy Trouard 100% 18.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.2 3.3 3.4 4.5 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.3 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.7
Geordie Beamish 100% 36.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.9
Luis Grijalva 100% 43.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7
Peter Lomong 100% 54.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1
Cory Glines 100% 89.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Matthew Baxter 1.7 35.6 22.0 10.7 6.6 4.6 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Tyler Day 1.9 30.8 21.0 11.0 6.8 6.6 4.6 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1
Andy Trouard 7.0 0.9 5.5 9.4 10.6 9.0 7.9 6.8 5.2 6.0 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.9 2.7 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Geordie Beamish 12.9 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.3 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.1 5.5 5.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.1
Luis Grijalva 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.7 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.9 3.7 4.3 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.3
Peter Lomong 18.6 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.0 3.2 3.6 3.7 5.6 3.7 5.0 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.0 4.4 3.1 2.3
Cory Glines 26.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.0 4.7 4.4 3.1 4.6 4.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 49.6% 100.0% 49.6 49.6 1
2 45.7% 100.0% 45.7 45.7 2
3 4.1% 100.0% 4.1 4.1 3
4 0.5% 100.0% 0.3 0.2 0.5 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 49.6 45.7 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 95.3 4.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Furman 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Colorado St. 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Southern Utah 99.8% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Virginia Tech 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 69.0% 1.0 0.7
Illinois 56.1% 2.0 1.1
Mid. Tenn. State 48.7% 1.0 0.5
Washington St. 42.1% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 2.0 0.7
Wisconsin 26.1% 2.0 0.5
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 2.0 0.5
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 2.0 0.0
Belmont 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 22.9
Minimum 17.0
Maximum 29.0