Men - Women
NCAA Championship Selection
2016 - 2017 - 2018



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of each regional race. After each simulation, the teams advancing to the NCAA Division I Championship are selected using the process that the NCAA uses to select the teams. More information can be found in the methodology page. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.


RankSchoolAdvancesAutoAt Large Auto Bid At Large
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 Northern Arizona 100.0% 95.3% 4.7% 49.6 45.7 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
2 BYU 100.0% 94.8% 5.3% 49.6 45.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
3 Stanford 99.8% 85.0% 14.9% 58.3 26.7 6.2 2.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
4 Portland 99.8% 75.8% 24.1% 32.5 43.3 11.1 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6
5 Furman 100.0% 99.6% 0.5% 91.3 8.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
6 Syracuse 100.0% 99.9% 0.2% 84.6 15.3 0.1 0.1
7 Colorado 100.0% 5.7% 94.4% 0.5 5.2 33.3 29.4 18.7 8.6 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
8 Colorado St. 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 0.3 3.0 22.9 29.1 24.6 13.3 4.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
9 Southern Utah 99.8% 1.1% 98.7% 0.1 1.1 8.5 19.3 30.9 24.1 9.1 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
10 Oregon 94.4% 22.3% 72.2% 6.3 16.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.6 12.8 13.1 8.0 5.9 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.9 4.0
11 UCLA 94.3% 11.1% 83.2% 2.2 8.9 0.6 1.8 2.8 7.1 16.2 12.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.8 5.5 5.4 5.8
12 Michigan 99.8% 94.9% 4.9% 60.4 34.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
13 Michigan State 99.4% 88.8% 10.6% 38.2 50.6 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
14 Alabama 38.9% 29.0% 10.0% 1.6 27.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.0 4.4
15 Arkansas 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 80.7 19.3
16 Campbell 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4
17 Iona 97.5% 96.3% 1.3% 15.3 81.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5
18 Washington 83.3% 5.1% 78.3% 0.7 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.2 10.1 13.4 11.3 12.4 10.5 10.7
19 Virginia Tech 99.5% 78.7% 20.8% 8.4 70.3 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.4 4.6 5.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2
20 Air Force 98.6% 0.0% 98.6% 1.3 6.0 16.3 35.0 23.0 10.9 3.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
21 Mississippi 98.2% 97.7% 0.5% 89.7 8.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
22 San Francisco 51.9% 0.6% 51.3% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.3 7.4 10.1 15.9 10.7
23 Boise State 56.1% 0.3% 55.8% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.4 4.3 7.4 10.9 13.3 14.1
24 Washington St. 56.8% 0.1% 56.7% 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.3 6.1 7.1 10.9 14.4 13.7
25 Mid. Tenn. State 50.4% 47.8% 2.6% 6.2 41.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.2
26 Virginia 26.5% 3.8% 22.8% 3.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.5 2.1 3.0 2.6 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.2
27 Wisconsin 32.3% 7.8% 24.5% 0.9 6.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.9 4.2 3.9 3.7 2.0 3.8
28 Texas 100.0% 99.6% 0.4% 19.3 80.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
29 North Carolina St. 76.2% 15.6% 60.6% 0.3 15.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 6.4 6.3 8.3 7.3 7.9 8.2 5.4 6.8
30 Illinois 70.5% 39.1% 31.5% 14.9 24.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.9 5.8 5.0 3.3 1.6 1.8 2.6
31 Oklahoma State 71.9% 57.1% 14.8% 30.0 27.1 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.5 2.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4
32 Utah State 50.7% 0.0% 50.7% 0.5 3.9 5.6 8.9 10.3 6.4 4.1 2.7 2.2 1.9 4.5
33 Eastern Michigan 13.8% 4.0% 9.8% 0.3 3.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9
34 Iowa State 95.9% 60.7% 35.2% 36.8 24.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.4 4.8 6.6 7.8 5.3 3.6 2.7 0.9 0.7
35 California 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.2
36 Purdue 30.2% 3.3% 26.9% 0.2 3.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.7 4.8 4.1 2.4 5.6
37 Columbia 4.1% 3.9% 0.3% 0.2 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
38 Eastern Kentucky 45.8% 2.2% 43.7% 0.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.7 5.5 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.7
39 Minnesota 88.9% 35.2% 53.7% 16.7 18.6 0.1 3.3 7.0 13.4 12.1 9.3 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.7
40 New Mexico 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 0.1 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2
41 Princeton 69.1% 69.0% 0.1% 45.2 23.9 0.1
42 Indiana 3.1% 1.0% 2.1% 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4
43 Charlotte 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
44 Kentucky 1.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
45 Georgetown 31.5% 31.4% 0.1% 11.3 20.2 0.1
46 Tulsa 19.2% 7.9% 11.4% 1.8 6.1 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.3
47 Penn State 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 10.7 15.6
48 Butler 2.1% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
49 Florida State 25.1% 23.6% 1.5% 2.6 21.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2
50 Navy 32.9% 32.9% 0.0% 15.4 17.6
51 Liberty 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
52 Gonzaga 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3
53 Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
54 Weber State 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
55 Penn 37.6% 37.3% 0.3% 16.4 21.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
56 Villanova 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.9 1.2
57 Bradley 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
58 Oakland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
59 Army West Point 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
60 Texas A&M 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5
61 Notre Dame 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.1
62 Georgia Tech 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6 0.1
63 UMass Lowell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
64 Nebraska 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
65 Tennessee 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 1.2 0.1
66 Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
67 Georgia 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1 0.1
68 Boston U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
69 Wake Forest 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1
70 Dayton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
71 Tennessee-Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
72 Iowa 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
73 Brown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
74 Utah Valley 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1
75 Lipscomb 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
76 Cornell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
77 Belmont 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
78 Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
79 Morehead State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
80 Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
81 Temple 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.4 0.8
82 Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
83 Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
84 Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
85 North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
86 Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
87 Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
88 UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
89 Miami (Ohio) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
90 Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
91 Auburn 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1
92 Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
93 William and Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
94 East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
95 Duke 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
96 UC Davis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
97 Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
98 Yale 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
99 Missouri 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
100 Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
101 Providence 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
102 South Dakota St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
103 McNeese State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
104 American 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
105 Baylor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
106 Albany 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
107 Bucknell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
108 Harvard 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
109 Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
110 Lehigh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
111 Northern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
112 Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
113 Texas-Arlington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
114 St. Joseph's (Pa.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
115 Texas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
116 UC Santa Barbara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
117 Marquette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
118 Illinois State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
119 Kansas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
120 Dartmouth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
121 East Tenn. St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
122 Loyola (Ill.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
123 Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
124 Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
125 Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
126 Bowling Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
127 Norfolk State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
128 Akron 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
129 Ohio U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
130 Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
131 Lamar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
132 Montana State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
133 Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
134 Oklahoma 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
135 Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
136 Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
137 Indiana State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
138 Wichita State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
139 North Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
140 George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
141 Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
142 St. Mary's (Cal.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
143 Texas Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
144 Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
145 Charleston Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
146 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
147 UL-Lafayette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
148 Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
149 North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
150 UC Irvine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
151 Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
152 New Mexico St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
153 Manhattan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
154 St. Francis (Pa.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
155 Idaho State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
156 LSU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
157 Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
158 Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
159 Binghamton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
160 South Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
161 Kansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
162 Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
163 IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
164 George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
165 Appalachian State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
166 Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
167 Marist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
168 Buffalo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
169 Siena 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
170 La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
171 Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
172 San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
173 Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
174 Vermont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
175 Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
176 North Dakota St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
177 Monmouth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
178 Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
179 Maine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
180 UMass Amherst 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
181 Miami 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
182 High Point 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
183 UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
184 Sacramento St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
185 Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
186 Kent State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
187 Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
188 Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
189 Central Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
190 South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
191 Miss State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
192 Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
193 Toledo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
194 Arizona State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
195 Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
196 Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
197 Montana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
198 New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
199 Sacred Heart 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
200 Wis.-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
201 UMBC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
202 Stephen F. Austin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
203 Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
204 Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
205 DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
206 Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
207 Seattle U. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
208 Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
209 Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
210 Sam Houston St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
211 Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
212 Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
213 Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
214 UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
215 Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
216 Arkansas-Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
217 San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
218 Grand Canyon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
219 Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
220 Quinnipiac 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
221 Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
222 UT-Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
223 UNC-Asheville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
224 Wright State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
225 Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
226 Murray State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
227 Portland State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
228 Abilene Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
229 Col. of Charleston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
230 Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
231 Kennesaw State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
232 Maryland-Eastern Shore 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
233 Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
234 Arkansas State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
235 Va. Military Institute 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
236 Radford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
237 Creighton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
238 Xavier (Ohio) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
239 South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
240 UTSA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
241 SIU-Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
242 Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
243 SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
244 Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
245 IPFW 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
246 Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
247 Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
248 Detroit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
249 VCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
250 North Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
251 USC Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
252 Texas A&M-CC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
253 New Jersey Institute 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
254 SE Missouri 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
255 Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
256 Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
257 Lafayette 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
258 Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
259 Fresno State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
260 N. Carolina A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
261 Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
262 Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
263 UNC-Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
264 Bethune-Cookman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
265 Winthrop 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
266 Grambling 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
267 UL-Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
268 Colgate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
269 Bryant 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
270 Jackson State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
271 Wagner 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
272 Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
273 Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
274 Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
275 Fairfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
276 Savannah State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
277 Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
278 Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
279 Hartford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
280 Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
281 Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
282 Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
283 Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
284 Howard 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
285 Wis.-Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
286 TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
287 Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
288 St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
289 Loyola (Md.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
290 Chicago State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
291 Gardner-Webb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
292 UNC-Wilmington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
293 Florida Int'l 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
294 Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
295 Delaware State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
296 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
297 Presbyterian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
298 New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
299 Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
300 Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
301 Texas Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
302 Alabama State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
303 Oral Roberts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
304 Fairleigh Dickinson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
305 Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
306 St. Francis (N.Y.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
307 Longwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
308 Nicholls State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
309 St. Peter's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
310 Coppin State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
311 South Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
312 Alcorn State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
313 Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
314 N.C. Central 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%