Arizona
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
18  Elvin Kibet JR 19:28
34  Jennifer Bergman SR 19:37
70  Nicci Corbin SO 19:53
98  Elizabeth Apgar SR 20:01
142  Amanda Russell JR 20:13
243  Stephanie Bulder SO 20:28
376  Erin Menefee JR 20:46
579  Clea Formaz SO 21:04
664  Melanie McGrath SR 21:10
886  Hannah Moen SR 21:25
992  Molly Callahan FR 21:34
National Rank #6 of 339
West Region Rank #3 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.3%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Nationals


National Champion 4.5%
Top 5 at Nationals 43.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 80.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.3%


Regional Champion 6.6%
Top 5 in Regional 99.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Elvin Kibet Jennifer Bergman Nicci Corbin Elizabeth Apgar Amanda Russell Stephanie Bulder Erin Menefee Clea Formaz Melanie McGrath Hannah Moen Molly Callahan
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 385 19:41 19:57 19:57 20:07 20:15 20:28 20:46 21:07 21:14 21:32
Grand Canyon University Invitational 10/06 1195 21:08 22:09 21:28
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 369 19:27 19:40 19:59 20:25 20:13 20:20 21:14
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 241 19:20 19:33 19:52 19:56 19:55 20:26 20:47 20:40 21:13 21:48
West Region Championships 11/09 286 19:40 19:35 19:47 19:57 20:09 21:11 21:02
NCAA Championship 11/17 332 19:24 19:28 19:57 20:09 20:19 20:55 21:28





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.3% 7.0 266 4.5 8.4 9.8 10.9 10.0 9.5 8.4 7.4 6.3 5.4 4.3 3.4 2.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 3.0 94 6.6 27.7 33.3 26.0 5.7 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elvin Kibet 100% 23.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1
Jennifer Bergman 99.7% 39.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7
Nicci Corbin 99.3% 73.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Elizabeth Apgar 99.3% 92.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Amanda Russell 99.3% 123.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephanie Bulder 99.3% 166.8
Erin Menefee 99.3% 207.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elvin Kibet 6.0 2.1 5.1 9.0 10.6 11.8 11.2 9.2 8.5 6.4 5.1 5.0 3.7 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jennifer Bergman 9.7 0.3 0.9 2.8 4.5 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.1 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.4 5.4 5.1 4.0 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.4
Nicci Corbin 18.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 4.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.6 5.7 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.5
Elizabeth Apgar 23.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.8 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9
Amanda Russell 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.6 3.5 4.1
Stephanie Bulder 43.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8
Erin Menefee 62.9 0.0 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 6.6% 100.0% 6.6 6.6 1
2 27.7% 100.0% 27.7 27.7 2
3 33.3% 100.0% 32.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.3 3
4 26.0% 99.7% 22.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 25.9 4
5 5.7% 94.4% 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 5.4 5
6 0.5% 51.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 6
7 0.1% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.3% 6.6 27.7 32.9 22.7 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 34.3 65.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Duke 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Providence 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.3% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 2.0 2.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Washington 97.8% 3.0 2.9
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Cornell 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 2.0 1.9
Notre Dame 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 2.0 1.8
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
Colorado 62.3% 1.0 0.6
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 2.0 0.8
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 2.0 0.3
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 2.0 0.2
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 2.0 0.1
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 24.4
Minimum 18.0
Maximum 32.0