BYU
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
112  Natalie Shields FR 20:05
308  Lindsey Sowards-Nielson JR 20:36
324  MichaelAnne Laurent JR 20:39
403  Rachel Stewart FR 20:48
431  Kathryn Vidmar JR 20:51
528  Carrie Jube FR 21:00
565  Sarah Darby SO 21:03
610  Laura Young FR 21:06
617  Ashleigh Warner FR 21:07
666  Andrea Nelson-Harrison JR 21:11
694  Makenna Smith SO 21:12
739  Erika Reddish FR 21:16
765  Danica Wyson FR 21:18
850  Katie Swanson JR 21:23
950  Stephanie Bills SR 21:30
1,299  Candace Eddy-Carlisle JR 21:54
1,689  Brooke Holt SO 22:19
National Rank #52 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 6.8%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.5%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 61.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Natalie Shields Lindsey Sowards-Nielson MichaelAnne Laurent Rachel Stewart Kathryn Vidmar Carrie Jube Sarah Darby Laura Young Ashleigh Warner Andrea Nelson-Harrison Makenna Smith
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 1015 20:46 20:47 21:00 21:05 21:08 21:05 20:51
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 731 20:03 20:37 20:18 20:45 20:39 21:32
WCC Championships 10/27 863 20:06 20:50 20:51 20:44 20:51 20:50 20:57 21:10 21:11
Mountain Region Championships 11/09 864 20:07 20:21 20:46 21:05 21:22 21:16 21:15





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 6.8% 26.4 599 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0
Region Championship 100% 5.2 167 0.4 2.2 8.4 24.5 25.7 17.9 11.2 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Shields 23.8% 84.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lindsey Sowards-Nielson 6.8% 157.9
MichaelAnne Laurent 6.8% 165.7
Rachel Stewart 6.8% 182.1
Kathryn Vidmar 6.8% 193.5
Carrie Jube 6.8% 211.3
Sarah Darby 6.8% 215.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Shields 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.9 5.9 7.1 8.2 8.9 9.0 8.6 6.8 6.2 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9
Lindsey Sowards-Nielson 32.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.0
MichaelAnne Laurent 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.7
Rachel Stewart 43.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2
Kathryn Vidmar 45.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5
Carrie Jube 54.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sarah Darby 56.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 2.2% 100.0% 2.2 2.2 2
3 8.4% 43.8% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.7 3.7 3
4 24.5% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 24.1 0.4 4
5 25.7% 0.2% 0.0 25.6 0.0 5
6 17.9% 17.9 6
7 11.2% 11.2 7
8 6.2% 6.2 8
9 2.7% 2.7 9
10 0.8% 0.8 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 6.8% 0.4 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 93.2 2.6 4.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.6
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0