Rank | Name | Grade | Rating |
39 |
Katie Kellner |
SR |
19:39 |
50 |
Rachel Sorna |
JR |
19:43 |
85 |
Emily Shearer |
JR |
19:58 |
150 |
Devin McMahon |
JR |
20:15 |
259 |
Caroline Kellner |
FR |
20:30 |
285 |
Kate Rosettie |
SR |
20:33 |
359 |
Genna Hartung |
SR |
20:43 |
419 |
Dina Iacone |
FR |
20:50 |
659 |
Marianne Collard |
SO |
21:10 |
731 |
Claire DeVoe |
FR |
21:16 |
742 |
Bori Tozser |
SO |
21:17 |
766 |
Kelsey Karys |
SR |
21:18 |
873 |
Elizabeth Simpson |
JR |
21:24 |
908 |
Maggi Szpak |
FR |
21:27 |
1,098 |
Cara Costich |
SR |
21:41 |
1,302 |
Kristen Niedrach |
FR |
21:54 |
1,335 |
Corey Dowe |
SO |
21:56 |
1,360 |
Dale Kinney |
JR |
21:57 |
1,685 |
Ann Herman |
FR |
22:18 |
1,751 |
Sydney Williams |
SO |
22:22 |
|
National Champion |
0.5% |
Top 5 at Nationals |
11.6% |
Top 10 at Nationals |
44.3% |
Top 20 at Nationals |
91.2% |
Regional Champion |
12.8% |
Top 5 in Regional |
98.8% |
Top 10 in Regional |
100.0% |
Top 20 in Regional |
100.0% |
|
Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
NCAA Championship | Advances to Round | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Katie Kellner |
99.9% |
41.3 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
Rachel Sorna |
99.4% |
50.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
Emily Shearer |
98.4% |
83.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Devin McMahon |
98.4% |
129.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Caroline Kellner |
98.4% |
171.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kate Rosettie |
98.4% |
177.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Genna Hartung |
98.4% |
202.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regional | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Katie Kellner |
6.0 |
1.3 |
7.2 |
8.9 |
10.2 |
11.9 |
10.9 |
9.8 |
9.2 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Rachel Sorna |
7.3 |
0.5 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
10.7 |
9.5 |
8.5 |
8.0 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Emily Shearer |
13.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
Devin McMahon |
23.6 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Caroline Kellner |
38.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
Kate Rosettie |
41.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Genna Hartung |
53.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
NCAA Championship Selection Detail
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Region Finish |
Chance of Finishing |
Chance of Advancing |
Auto |
|
At Large Selection |
|
No Adv |
Auto |
At Large |
Region Finish |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
12.8% |
100.0% |
12.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.8 |
|
1 |
2 |
33.5% |
100.0% |
|
33.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33.5 |
|
2 |
3 |
36.6% |
100.0% |
| |
11.2 |
3.2 |
19.9 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
36.6 |
3 |
4 |
12.2% |
98.2% |
| |
|
0.9 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
|
12.0 |
4 |
5 |
3.6% |
83.4% |
| |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
|
3.0 |
5 |
6 |
0.9% |
38.3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
|
0.4 |
6 |
7 |
0.2% |
27.3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
7 |
8 |
0.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
8 |
9 |
0.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
9 |
10 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
11 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
12 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
13 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
20 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
34 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
37 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
42 |
|
Total |
100% |
98.4% |
12.8 |
33.5 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
20.1 |
4.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
46.3 |
52.0 |
Points
At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Received By Beating | Chance Received | Average If >0 | Average |
Duke |
100.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Providence |
99.9% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Georgetown |
99.9% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Weber State |
99.6% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Penn State |
99.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Minnesota |
98.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
New Mexico |
98.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Connecticut |
97.5% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Michigan State |
97.3% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
William and Mary |
95.3% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Notre Dame |
95.3% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Vanderbilt |
87.8% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
Villanova |
78.2% |
1.0 |
0.8 |
Toledo |
71.9% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Boston College |
68.1% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
North Carolina St. |
53.9% |
1.0 |
0.5 |
UCLA |
39.1% |
1.0 |
0.4 |
San Francisco |
27.7% |
1.0 |
0.3 |
Yale |
24.0% |
3.0 |
0.7 |
Princeton |
14.9% |
2.0 |
0.3 |
Wisconsin |
12.8% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Georgia |
10.8% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Northwestern |
7.9% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Dartmouth |
7.5% |
3.0 |
0.2 |
Syracuse |
3.7% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
North Carolina |
2.9% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
BYU |
2.8% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Harvard |
2.0% |
3.0 |
0.1 |
Colorado St. |
1.2% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Brown |
0.5% |
3.0 |
0.0 |
Ohio State |
0.4% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Indiana |
0.2% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Columbia |
0.1% |
2.0 |
0.0 |
Iowa |
0.1% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Texas A&M |
0.1% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Virginia |
0.1% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Northern Arizona |
0.0% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Cal Poly |
0.0% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
Total |
|
|
17.8 |
|
Minimum |
|
|
13.0 |
Maximum |
|
|
30.0 |