Duke
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
20  Juliet Bottorff JR 19:30
33  Kelsey Lakowske FR 19:37
108  Carolyn Baskir SO 20:04
141  Suejin Ahn SR 20:13
197  Madeline Morgan SR 20:22
319  Megan Deakins SR 20:38
581  Gabby Levac SO 21:04
591  Ashley Brasovan JR 21:05
596  Kayla Hale JR 21:05
640  Jessie Rubin SO 21:09
1,061  Dana Morin SO 21:38
1,094  Olivia Anderson FR 21:40
1,167  Ashley Berry JR 21:46
1,306  Adrianne Soo JR 21:54
1,472  Brianna Welch SO 22:05
1,865  Abby Farley FR 22:29
National Rank #9 of 339
Southeast Region Rank #1 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.7%
Top 5 at Nationals 16.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 54.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 94.4%


Regional Champion 86.1%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Juliet Bottorff Kelsey Lakowske Carolyn Baskir Suejin Ahn Madeline Morgan Megan Deakins Gabby Levac Ashley Brasovan Kayla Hale Jessie Rubin Dana Morin
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 756 19:49 20:24 20:31 20:46 21:30 21:05 21:04
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 490 19:29 20:00 20:11 20:10 20:45 21:16
Queens Royals Challenge 10/12 1224 21:27 21:41
ACC Championships 10/27 376 19:25 19:38 20:13 20:15 20:09 21:33 20:19 21:08 21:35
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 457 19:26 19:54 20:02 20:14 20:43 21:02 21:14
NCAA Championship 11/17 365 19:27 19:24 19:58 20:11 20:29 21:04 20:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 10.8 338 0.7 2.2 3.3 4.3 5.6 7.0 6.9 8.2 8.2 7.5 6.3 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.2 66 86.1 11.5 2.2 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Juliet Bottorff 100% 26.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2
Kelsey Lakowske 100% 37.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.8
Carolyn Baskir 100% 99.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Suejin Ahn 100% 125.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Madeline Morgan 100% 149.7
Gabby Levac 100% 234.1
Ashley Brasovan 100% 235.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Juliet Bottorff 3.4 11.5 16.3 16.7 14.5 11.6 9.5 7.9 5.6 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kelsey Lakowske 5.0 3.8 8.7 11.7 13.0 13.4 13.2 10.6 8.5 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolyn Baskir 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 6.6 7.8 9.2 10.0 9.1 8.6 7.0 5.8 4.9 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.9
Suejin Ahn 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 3.4 5.1 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.7 6.5 6.4 6.6 5.4 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.6
Madeline Morgan 21.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.2 4.9 5.4 4.7 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.2 3.6
Gabby Levac 58.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Ashley Brasovan 59.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 86.1% 100.0% 86.1 86.1 1
2 11.5% 100.0% 11.5 11.5 2
3 2.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 3
4 0.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4
5 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 100.0% 86.1 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5 2.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 2.0 1.4
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 2.0 0.2
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 2.0 0.1
BYU 2.8% 2.0 0.1
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 12.2
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 19.0