Florida
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
64  Florence Ngetich SR 19:49
177  Agata Strausa JR 20:20
195  Callie Cooper SR 20:22
304  Stephanie Strasser JR 20:36
337  Shelby Hayes JR 20:40
546  Amanda Perkins SR 21:02
696  Shelby Davidson FR 21:13
937  Julie Macedo FR 21:30
National Rank #30 of 339
South Region Rank #2 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 88.8%
Most Likely Finish 31st at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 19.1%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Florence Ngetich Agata Strausa Callie Cooper Stephanie Strasser Shelby Hayes Amanda Perkins Shelby Davidson Julie Macedo
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 663 19:50 20:35 20:23 20:15 21:04 20:49 21:45
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 21:05
SEC Championships 10/26 576 19:45 19:58 20:21 20:37 20:33 21:12 20:59 21:18
South Region Championships 11/09 750 20:02 20:46 20:26 20:39 20:35 20:59 21:31
NCAA Championship 11/17 633 19:45 20:08 20:18 20:52 20:39 21:09 21:22





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 88.8% 24.7 570 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.1 5.0 5.3 5.6 7.0 7.2 7.9 9.1 10.4
Region Championship 100% 2.7 101 0.4 51.8 28.9 13.8 5.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Florence Ngetich 97.6% 62.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
Agata Strausa 89.1% 139.8
Callie Cooper 88.9% 147.0
Stephanie Strasser 88.8% 184.0
Shelby Hayes 88.8% 193.2
Amanda Perkins 88.8% 230.5
Shelby Davidson 88.8% 241.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Florence Ngetich 4.8 3.7 5.6 9.6 16.3 17.6 13.1 9.6 6.8 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Agata Strausa 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.1 3.7 5.7 6.0 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.6 6.1 4.9 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.3
Callie Cooper 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.0 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.4 2.9 2.4
Stephanie Strasser 26.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.3
Shelby Hayes 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.9
Amanda Perkins 51.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Shelby Davidson 63.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 51.8% 100.0% 51.8 51.8 2
3 28.9% 87.5% 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.5 3.6 25.3 3
4 13.8% 70.4% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 4.1 9.7 4
5 5.1% 32.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.4 1.6 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 88.8% 0.4 51.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.5 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.2 4.8 4.1 4.3 11.2 52.2 36.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Kentucky 11.2% 2.0 0.2
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Butler 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
LSU 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.3
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 7.0