Providence
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
13  Sarah Collins FR 19:24
17  Emily Sisson JR 19:27
47  Laura Nagel JR 19:41
66  Shelby Greany SR 19:52
231  Grace Thek JR 20:27
233  Samantha Roecker SR 20:27
575  Molly Keating FR 21:03
894  Katelyn Sischo FR 21:26
1,103  Lauren Mullins FR 21:41
1,300  Jackie McCarthy JR 21:54
1,375  Erin Murphy JR 21:59
1,693  Kathleen Powell FR 22:19
1,795  Elizabeth DeVivo JR 22:25
2,097  Caile Kohlbrenner SO 22:46
2,134  Devyn Pryor SO 22:48
2,260  Molly McCann JR 22:56
3,141  Abi Alegi JR 24:21
3,270  Anna Dumais FR 24:41
National Rank #4 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #1 of 42
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 6.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 59.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 91.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.7%


Regional Champion 67.4%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sarah Collins Emily Sisson Laura Nagel Shelby Greany Grace Thek Samantha Roecker Molly Keating Katelyn Sischo Lauren Mullins Jackie McCarthy Erin Murphy
Lehigh's Paul Short Run (Gold) 09/28 605 19:39 19:48 20:23 20:37 20:59 21:10 21:32
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 393 19:24 19:38 19:57 20:23 20:23 21:11 22:13
CCSU Mini Meet 10/19 1257 21:35 21:54
Big East Championships 10/26 498 19:26 19:56 19:36 20:28 21:10 21:46 22:02 21:45
Northeast Region Championships 11/09 258 19:30 19:36 19:35 19:47 20:17 20:22 20:57
NCAA Championship 11/17 231 19:12 19:21 19:33 19:48 20:33 20:20 20:58





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 5.4 235 6.3 14.8 14.8 12.3 11.5 9.8 8.1 5.7 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.4 59 67.4 23.2 8.0 1.2 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 100% 18.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.7 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0
Emily Sisson 100% 21.9 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
Laura Nagel 99.9% 45.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6
Shelby Greany 99.9% 70.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Grace Thek 99.9% 163.8
Samantha Roecker 99.9% 164.1
Molly Keating 99.9% 233.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 2.4 7.8 32.4 22.8 12.7 8.2 5.4 3.6 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Emily Sisson 2.8 5.7 23.8 24.4 14.4 10.0 7.6 4.6 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Laura Nagel 6.6 0.2 2.2 5.9 13.0 12.1 10.6 10.5 9.0 7.7 7.0 5.4 4.4 3.8 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Shelby Greany 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.5 5.9 6.7 7.9 8.1 7.9 8.4 7.6 6.8 5.0 4.9 4.1 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6
Grace Thek 35.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2
Samantha Roecker 35.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.6
Molly Keating 74.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 67.4% 100.0% 67.4 67.4 1
2 23.2% 100.0% 23.2 23.2 2
3 8.0% 100.0% 0.5 0.6 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.0 3
4 1.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 4
5 0.2% 88.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5
6 0.0% 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
Total 100% 99.9% 67.4 23.2 0.5 0.6 4.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 90.6 9.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Duke 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.3% 2.0 1.9
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Villanova 78.2% 2.0 1.6
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 2.0 0.1
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 2.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 14.8
Minimum 10.0
Maximum 22.0