Washington
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
54  Megan Goethals JR 19:45
67  Lindsay Flanagan SR 19:52
68  Katie Flood JR 19:52
79  Justine Johnson JR 19:55
134  Liberty Miller JR 20:10
288  Kayla Evans SR 20:33
299  Chelsea Orr SO 20:35
347  Maddie Meyers FR 20:42
693  Joelle Amaral SO 21:12
714  Anna Dailey JR 21:14
National Rank #7 of 339
West Region Rank #4 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.9%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 2.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 30.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 70.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.2%


Regional Champion 4.5%
Top 5 in Regional 98.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Megan Goethals Lindsay Flanagan Katie Flood Justine Johnson Liberty Miller Kayla Evans Chelsea Orr Maddie Meyers Joelle Amaral Anna Dailey
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 405 19:53 19:45 20:10 20:09 20:09 20:35 20:28
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 399 19:56 19:45 19:53 20:11 20:15 20:26 21:13
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 346 19:45 19:45 20:12 19:46 20:11 21:09 20:50 21:13 21:15
West Region Championships 11/09 306 19:52 19:53 19:48 19:52 19:58 20:34 21:09
NCAA Championship 11/17 410 19:42 19:56 20:02 20:02 20:26 20:50 20:45





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.9% 8.5 294 2.6 4.9 6.4 8.6 8.1 8.7 8.6 8.6 7.8 5.7 5.7 4.4 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 3.3 103 4.5 18.3 26.9 40.4 8.6 1.2 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Megan Goethals 99.2% 54.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Lindsay Flanagan 98.9% 70.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
Katie Flood 98.9% 70.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
Justine Johnson 98.9% 78.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Liberty Miller 98.9% 117.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Kayla Evans 98.9% 180.5
Maddie Meyers 98.9% 199.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Megan Goethals 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.4 5.4 5.4 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.2 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.5
Lindsay Flanagan 17.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.3 5.1 5.9 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.3 4.8 5.4 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.1
Katie Flood 17.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.6 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.7 3.6
Justine Johnson 19.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.4 3.9
Liberty Miller 29.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.2
Kayla Evans 49.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Maddie Meyers 58.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 4.5% 100.0% 4.5 4.5 1
2 18.3% 100.0% 18.3 18.3 2
3 26.9% 100.0% 25.8 1.0 0.1 26.9 3
4 40.4% 100.0% 31.5 7.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 40.4 4
5 8.6% 93.5% 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 8.0 5
6 1.2% 63.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 6
7 0.1% 20.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 98.9% 4.5 18.3 25.8 32.5 10.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 22.8 76.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Duke 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Providence 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 2.0 2.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Cornell 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 2.0 1.9
Notre Dame 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 2.0 1.8
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
Colorado 62.3% 1.0 0.6
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 2.0 0.8
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 2.0 0.3
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 2.0 0.2
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 2.0 0.1
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 20.5
Minimum 14.0
Maximum 28.0