Kentucky
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
7  Cally Macumber JR 19:16
49  Chelsea Oswald SR 19:43
251  Anna Bostrom JR 20:29
320  Allison Peare JR 20:38
965  Hiruni Wijayaratne SR 21:31
1,342  Katherine Doyle FR 21:56
1,347  Megan Wright JR 21:56
1,573  Mary Kate Ponder FR 22:11
2,363  Katy Achtien JR 23:03
National Rank #27 of 339
Southeast Region Rank #3 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 19.5%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 8.4%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 79.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Cally Macumber Chelsea Oswald Anna Bostrom Allison Peare Hiruni Wijayaratne Katherine Doyle Megan Wright Mary Kate Ponder Katy Achtien
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 695 19:45 19:50 20:35 20:52 21:13 21:51 21:48 23:05
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 593 19:25 19:48 20:13 20:39 21:32 21:47 22:58
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 22:24 23:11
SEC Championships 10/26 705 19:41 19:52 20:47 20:40 21:29 22:16 21:48 21:54 22:52
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 547 19:23 19:30 20:21 20:20 22:00 21:50 22:16
NCAA Championship 11/17 19:04 19:33





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 19.5% 21.1 501 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2
Region Championship 100% 4.6 174 0.2 3.4 12.7 36.2 27.2 13.6 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cally Macumber 100% 10.6 2.1 3.7 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.9 5.5 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.2
Chelsea Oswald 87.4% 51.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0
Anna Bostrom 19.5% 151.8
Allison Peare 19.5% 176.3
Hiruni Wijayaratne 19.5% 246.6
Katherine Doyle 19.6% 251.0
Mary Kate Ponder 19.6% 252.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cally Macumber 1.0 55.3 19.1 10.3 6.5 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chelsea Oswald 6.7 0.5 4.8 6.5 8.2 10.1 11.5 12.7 12.0 10.4 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Anna Bostrom 26.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Allison Peare 34.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.5
Hiruni Wijayaratne 99.3
Katherine Doyle 143.0
Mary Kate Ponder 166.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 3.4% 100.0% 3.4 3.4 2
3 12.7% 57.3% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 5.4 7.3 3
4 36.2% 19.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 2.7 29.0 7.2 4
5 27.2% 5.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 25.8 1.4 5
6 13.6% 0.1% 0.0 13.6 0.0 6
7 5.0% 5.0 7
8 1.3% 1.3 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.0% 0.0 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 19.5% 0.2 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 4.4 80.5 3.6 15.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Duke 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 10.8% 2.0 0.2
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
LSU 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0