Michigan
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
53  Rebecca Addison SR 19:45
55  Jillian Smith SR 19:46
99  Amanda Eccleston SR 20:01
127  Brook Handler SO 20:08
129  Shannon Osika FR 20:08
148  Lindsey Hilton SR 20:14
154  Taylor Pogue SO 20:16
240  Taylor Manett FR 20:28
351  Megan Weschler SO 20:42
494  Michaela Carnegie FR 20:57
682  Anna Pasternak FR 21:12
849  Kaitlyn Patterson JR 21:23
1,394  Meg Bellino JR 22:00
National Rank #8 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 1.7%
Top 5 at Nationals 25.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 64.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.2%


Regional Champion 73.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Rebecca Addison Jillian Smith Amanda Eccleston Brook Handler Shannon Osika Lindsey Hilton Taylor Pogue Taylor Manett Megan Weschler Michaela Carnegie Anna Pasternak
Rim Rock Farm Classic 09/29 434 19:42 20:04 20:14 20:06 20:12 20:13 20:27 20:39 20:48 21:12
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 337 19:50 19:29 20:01 20:09 20:21 20:38 20:04
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 20:22 20:40 21:07 21:11
Big Ten Championships 10/28 389 19:45 19:58 19:58 20:25 20:04 20:21 20:37 20:15 20:49
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 354 19:53 19:38 20:30 20:08 20:01 20:03 20:53
NCAA Championship 11/17 301 19:46 19:44 19:48 19:56 20:13 20:06 20:34





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 9.3 311 1.7 4.3 5.5 6.5 7.2 7.7 8.6 8.0 8.1 7.2 5.9 5.5 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.4 58 73.3 19.4 5.9 1.1 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Rebecca Addison 100.0% 54.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Jillian Smith 99.9% 55.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9
Amanda Eccleston 99.9% 92.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Brook Handler 99.9% 111.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shannon Osika 99.9% 113.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lindsey Hilton 99.9% 128.8 0.0 0.0
Taylor Manett 99.9% 165.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Rebecca Addison 5.4 3.7 7.1 9.5 11.1 14.4 11.7 10.3 8.2 6.6 4.5 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Jillian Smith 5.6 3.6 7.1 9.4 10.8 12.4 12.1 10.8 8.5 6.4 4.9 3.7 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Amanda Eccleston 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 2.7 4.4 5.7 6.8 7.0 7.7 7.7 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3
Brook Handler 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.8 3.6 4.1 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.3 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.5
Shannon Osika 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.2 3.6 4.2 4.4 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.2
Lindsey Hilton 19.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.2 5.3 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.3 4.5 3.9 4.2 3.3 3.4
Taylor Manett 30.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 73.3% 100.0% 73.3 73.3 1
2 19.4% 100.0% 19.4 19.4 2
3 5.9% 100.0% 0.1 0.3 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.9 3
4 1.1% 98.2% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 4
5 0.2% 77.8% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 0.1% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.9% 73.3 19.4 0.1 0.3 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.8 7.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgetown 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 1.0 1.0
William and Mary 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Texas 94.9% 1.0 0.9
Florida 82.7% 1.0 0.8
Villanova 78.2% 1.0 0.8
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Colorado 62.3% 1.0 0.6
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Butler 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.2
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 14.0