Minnesota
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
89  Molly Kayfes SO 19:59
90  Laura Docherty JR 19:59
201  Katie Moraczewski JR 20:22
244  Ashlie Decker JR 20:28
267  Maggie Bollig JR 20:31
350  Kathryn Ritter SR 20:42
354  Rachel Drake JR 20:42
378  Liz Berkholtz FR 20:46
392  Kelli Budd JR 20:47
445  Cassy Opitz JR 20:52
512  Kate Bucknam FR 20:59
586  Paige Orcutt SR 21:04
630  Jamie Piepenburg FR 21:08
636  Jamie Vandenberg JR 21:09
764  Annie Talajkowski JR 21:18
881  Rebecca Rethwisch FR 21:25
1,076  Jessica Schmidt SR 21:39
1,089  Kait Mincke JR 21:40
1,147  Hannah Trasser FR 21:44
1,364  Katie Hill JR 21:58
1,473  Becca Dyson FR 22:06
1,597  Stephanie Solfelt JR 22:13
1,716  Lauren Domski FR 22:20
1,785  Chelsea Pettit SO 22:24
1,902  Stacey Swatek FR 22:31
1,921  Anne Ferguson FR 22:33
2,011  Heather Brunn SR 22:39
2,029  Jillian Johnson SO 22:41
2,302  Rachel Edwards 23:00
2,352  Alexandra Brackenwagen JR 23:03
2,411  Morgan Sickels SO 23:07
2,509  Andie Zeman FR 23:15
2,694  Abby Anderson SO 23:30
2,779  Rachael Weber FR 23:37
3,093  Marie Muscala SR 24:13
3,237  Megan Bailey FR 24:33
National Rank #23 of 339
Midwest Region Rank #2 of 35
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.3%
Most Likely Finish 24th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 6.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 44.8%


Regional Champion 5.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Molly Kayfes Laura Docherty Katie Moraczewski Ashlie Decker Maggie Bollig Kathryn Ritter Rachel Drake Liz Berkholtz Kelli Budd Cassy Opitz Kate Bucknam
Roy Griak Invitational 09/29 417 19:51 19:31 20:14 20:03 20:39 20:42 20:24 20:41 20:33 20:53 20:59
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 614 20:03 20:02 20:17 20:35 20:49 20:38 20:38
Big Ten Championships 10/28 667 20:23 19:58 20:23 20:34 20:36 20:49 20:48 21:05
Midwest Region Championships 11/09 581 19:46 20:08 20:33 20:20 20:30 20:56 20:54
NCAA Championship 11/17 622 19:57 20:10 20:32 20:39 20:18 20:48 20:55





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.3% 20.9 503 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.8
Region Championship 100% 2.4 97 5.0 62.0 25.1 6.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Kayfes 98.3% 85.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Laura Docherty 98.3% 86.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Katie Moraczewski 98.3% 149.8
Ashlie Decker 98.3% 164.6
Maggie Bollig 98.3% 174.5
Kathryn Ritter 98.3% 198.6
Rachel Drake 98.3% 199.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Kayfes 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.7 7.4 9.3 9.9 10.4 9.9 8.5 7.0 6.0 5.4 4.3 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4
Laura Docherty 10.4 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.1 7.1 9.5 10.7 10.1 10.0 8.4 7.1 6.4 4.7 4.1 3.5 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.4
Katie Moraczewski 20.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.7 4.5 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.0 5.4 4.5 4.7
Ashlie Decker 24.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.2
Maggie Bollig 26.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.4 5.1 4.7
Kathryn Ritter 36.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.9 2.6
Rachel Drake 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.0% 100.0% 5.0 5.0 1
2 62.0% 100.0% 62.0 62.0 2
3 25.1% 99.7% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.2 4.3 5.0 3.4 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 25.0 3
4 6.4% 97.5% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 6.2 4
5 1.2% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 5
6 0.3% 0.3 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 0.0% 0.0 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
Total 100% 98.3% 5.0 62.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.8 5.4 6.1 4.2 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 1.7 67.1 31.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Connecticut 97.5% 2.0 2.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 2.0 0.3
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 2.0 0.2
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
James Madison 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.2
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 13.0