Oregon
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
3  Jordan Hasay SR 19:03
9  Alexi Pappas SR 19:18
26  Allie Woodward FR 19:34
60  Katie Conlon SR 19:48
76  Annie Leblanc FR 19:55
104  Sarah Penney SR 20:03
165  Megan Patrignelli SO 20:18
186  Abbey Leonardi FR 20:20
412  Becca Friday SR 20:49
448  Taylor Wallace SR 20:52
689  Anne Kesselring SR 21:12
National Rank #1 of 339
West Region Rank #1 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 59.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 95.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 99.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 80.5%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jordan Hasay Alexi Pappas Allie Woodward Katie Conlon Annie Leblanc Sarah Penney Megan Patrignelli Abbey Leonardi Becca Friday Taylor Wallace Anne Kesselring
Oregon Dellinger Invitational 09/29 489 20:18 19:29 20:17 20:12 20:16 20:25 20:29 20:47 20:52 20:58
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 212 19:19 19:13 19:40 19:56 20:03 20:12 20:20
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 165 19:19 19:21 19:24 20:05 19:49 19:54 20:19 20:10 20:53 21:33
West Region Championships 11/09 211 18:59 19:37 19:35 20:00 19:58 19:55 20:19
NCAA Championship 11/17 140 18:50 19:05 19:40 19:35 19:51 20:10 20:31





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.9 137 59.8 18.3 9.0 5.2 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.3 51 80.5 14.2 4.3 0.9 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jordan Hasay 100% 3.6 16.3 14.4 12.5 10.6 8.3 6.5 5.7 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Alexi Pappas 100% 12.1 1.1 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3
Allie Woodward 100% 33.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7
Katie Conlon 100% 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6
Annie Leblanc 100% 77.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Sarah Penney 100% 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Megan Patrignelli 100% 139.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jordan Hasay 1.1 46.3 30.7 11.9 5.4 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alexi Pappas 3.4 4.0 15.5 24.1 16.8 11.8 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Allie Woodward 8.3 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.7 9.7 8.8 9.0 8.5 7.6 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3
Katie Conlon 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.4 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.8 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.8
Annie Leblanc 19.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.4 4.6 4.8 4.1 3.5
Sarah Penney 23.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.5 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.8 5.1 4.7 5.1
Megan Patrignelli 34.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 80.5% 100.0% 80.5 80.5 1
2 14.2% 100.0% 14.2 14.2 2
3 4.3% 100.0% 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.3 3
4 0.9% 100.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 4
5 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 100.0% 80.5 14.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.8 5.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.3% 1.0 1.0
Arizona 98.5% 1.0 1.0
Washington 97.8% 1.0 1.0
William and Mary 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Texas 94.9% 1.0 0.9
Florida 82.7% 1.0 0.8
Villanova 78.2% 1.0 0.8
Colorado 62.3% 2.0 1.2
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Butler 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6% 2.0 0.1
UC Davis 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.3
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 16.0