Southern Utah
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
94  Jamie Smith SR 20:01
247  Kirsten Bradford SR 20:28
263  Danielle Jewkes JR 20:31
287  Sylvia Bedford SR 20:33
688  Shelli Mogensen JR 21:12
995  Whitney Curtis JR 21:34
1,032  Kaylee Coates SR 21:36
1,130  Dayna VanArsdol SR 21:43
1,762  Elizabeth Butler SR 22:23
National Rank #45 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 7.4%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.5%


Regional Champion 0.3%
Top 5 in Regional 67.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jamie Smith Kirsten Bradford Danielle Jewkes Sylvia Bedford Shelli Mogensen Whitney Curtis Kaylee Coates Dayna VanArsdol Elizabeth Butler
Oregon Dellinger Invitational 09/29 874 20:12 20:42 20:49 20:31 21:50 21:42 21:36 21:32
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 852 19:57 20:40 20:50 20:38 21:31 22:08 21:55
Big Sky Championships 10/27 608 19:57 20:19 20:15 20:20 20:39 21:17 21:27 22:24
Mountain Region Championships 11/09 649 20:00 20:09 20:10 20:44 20:50 21:41 21:19





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 7.4% 24.6 563 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Region Championship 100% 5.0 163 0.3 2.1 8.9 30.7 25.5 15.8 9.1 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jamie Smith 32.7% 76.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Kirsten Bradford 7.5% 132.4
Danielle Jewkes 7.5% 140.6
Sylvia Bedford 7.4% 150.8
Shelli Mogensen 7.4% 229.0
Whitney Curtis 7.4% 246.4
Kaylee Coates 7.4% 247.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jamie Smith 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.3 5.2 6.9 7.8 9.1 9.4 9.3 9.4 7.6 6.2 5.3 3.9 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6
Kirsten Bradford 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.4 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.2
Danielle Jewkes 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.5
Sylvia Bedford 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2
Shelli Mogensen 63.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Whitney Curtis 80.9
Kaylee Coates 82.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 1
2 2.1% 100.0% 2.1 2.1 2
3 8.9% 51.2% 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 4.4 4.6 3
4 30.7% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 30.4 0.4 4
5 25.5% 25.5 5
6 15.8% 15.8 6
7 9.1% 9.1 7
8 5.0% 5.0 8
9 2.1% 2.1 9
10 0.5% 0.5 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 7.4% 0.3 2.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 92.6 2.4 4.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0