Stanford
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
10  Kathy Kroeger SR 19:19
28  Cayla Hatton FR 19:35
29  Aisling Cuffe SO 19:35
56  Jessica Tonn JR 19:47
234  Marissa Ferrante JR 20:27
298  Megan Lacy FR 20:35
309  Justine Fedronic SR 20:37
363  Julia Foster SO 20:44
506  Rebecca Mehra FR 20:58
960  Alli Billmeyer SO 21:31
1,002  Emilie Amaro SR 21:34
1,009  Cami Chapus FR 21:35
1,129  Mary Kate Anselmini SO 21:42
1,271  Hannah Varnell JR 21:52
2,145  Sophia Ginez JR 22:48
2,703  Jaye Buchbinder FR 23:30
National Rank #3 of 339
West Region Rank #2 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.6%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 4.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 55.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 90.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.4%


Regional Champion 8.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kathy Kroeger Cayla Hatton Aisling Cuffe Jessica Tonn Marissa Ferrante Megan Lacy Justine Fedronic Julia Foster Rebecca Mehra Alli Billmeyer Emilie Amaro
Stanford Invitational 09/29 341 19:26 19:34 19:39 20:01 20:40 21:10 21:30 22:04
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 273 19:20 19:36 19:41 19:38 20:27 20:36
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/13
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 323 19:15 19:59 19:40 19:45 20:31 21:23 20:55 21:32
Doc Adams Invitational 11/03 21:07
West Region Championships 11/09 297 19:11 19:34 19:36 20:01 20:28 20:54 21:41
NCAA Championship 11/17 235 19:26 19:27 19:24 19:39 20:45 20:24 20:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.6% 5.7 242 4.8 11.3 13.8 13.5 11.9 9.9 9.3 7.0 5.1 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.7 88 8.3 38.7 31.4 18.7 2.5 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kathy Kroeger 100% 13.0 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6
Cayla Hatton 99.9% 33.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3
Aisling Cuffe 99.7% 35.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.7
Jessica Tonn 99.6% 58.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8
Megan Lacy 99.6% 184.8
Justine Fedronic 99.6% 187.9
Julia Foster 99.6% 203.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kathy Kroeger 3.7 7.7 13.9 17.7 16.5 11.8 9.6 6.3 4.5 3.8 2.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cayla Hatton 8.5 0.3 1.3 3.1 6.1 7.8 9.4 9.0 9.0 7.9 7.1 6.6 5.6 4.9 4.1 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3
Aisling Cuffe 8.8 0.2 1.2 2.4 5.1 7.5 8.6 9.9 8.2 8.3 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.7 4.9 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5
Jessica Tonn 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.9 3.9 5.1 5.6 6.3 6.0 7.0 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.1 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.1 2.1
Megan Lacy 51.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Justine Fedronic 52.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2
Julia Foster 60.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 8.3% 100.0% 8.3 8.3 1
2 38.7% 100.0% 38.7 38.7 2
3 31.4% 100.0% 22.2 8.5 0.7 0.0 31.4 3
4 18.7% 99.9% 16.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 18.7 4
5 2.5% 94.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.3 5
6 0.3% 42.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.6% 8.3 38.7 22.2 24.9 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 47.0 52.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Duke 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Providence 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Arizona 98.5% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Washington 97.8% 2.0 2.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Cornell 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 97.3% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
Colorado 62.3% 1.0 0.6
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 2.0 0.8
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 18.2
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 24.0