Toledo
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
77  Kaylin Belair SR 19:55
156  Megan Wright SO 20:16
199  Priscilla Timmons SO 20:22
211  Liz Weiler SO 20:24
428  Megan Gaysunas SO 20:51
482  Megan Vogelsong JR 20:56
525  Mackenzie Chojnacky SO 21:00
561  Brooke Tullis SO 21:03
673  Devyn Ramsay JR 21:11
699  Elizabeth Lemon JR 21:13
770  Sharon Morgan FR 21:18
949  Stephanie Ingraham FR 21:30
1,157  Lindsey Burdette FR 21:45
1,175  Jackie Koza SO 21:46
1,362  Hannah Brisson JR 21:58
1,638  Megan Csehi SO 22:16
1,819  Kelly Morgan SO 22:26
1,980  Kelsey Calhoun FR 22:36
2,705  Richelle Gray JR 23:30
National Rank #29 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #4 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 73.4%
Most Likely Finish 29th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 18.9%


Regional Champion 0.7%
Top 5 in Regional 72.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kaylin Belair Megan Wright Priscilla Timmons Liz Weiler Megan Gaysunas Megan Vogelsong Mackenzie Chojnacky Brooke Tullis Devyn Ramsay Elizabeth Lemon Sharon Morgan
Rim Rock Farm Classic 09/29 514 20:02 20:11 20:20 20:24 20:59 20:55 19:58 21:34 21:27 21:11 21:30
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 616 19:56 20:19 20:20 20:29 20:45 20:28 21:22
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 1185 21:03 21:22 21:29
Mid-American Conference Championships 10/27 753 20:08 20:19 20:53 20:23 21:54 20:52 20:58 21:05 21:00
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 750 20:04 20:27 20:11 21:02 20:53 21:01
NCAA Championship 11/17 734 19:42 20:09 20:29 21:37 21:03 21:09 21:12





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 73.4% 23.9 553 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.7 4.8 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.4 6.3 5.1
Region Championship 100% 4.7 143 0.7 6.0 16.0 29.9 19.8 14.2 7.6 3.9 1.4 0.6 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kaylin Belair 79.0% 72.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Megan Wright 73.5% 125.6
Priscilla Timmons 73.5% 143.1 0.0
Liz Weiler 73.4% 147.7
Mackenzie Chojnacky 73.4% 225.9
Brooke Tullis 73.4% 229.7
Devyn Ramsay 73.4% 238.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kaylin Belair 8.7 0.9 2.7 4.2 5.3 6.2 7.7 9.0 8.3 7.7 6.9 6.7 5.9 4.8 4.1 3.1 2.9 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5
Megan Wright 21.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.5 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.4
Priscilla Timmons 25.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.6 3.9 3.5
Liz Weiler 26.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 2.9 3.9
Mackenzie Chojnacky 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brooke Tullis 63.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Devyn Ramsay 73.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.7% 100.0% 0.7 0.7 1
2 6.0% 100.0% 6.0 6.0 2
3 16.0% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 16.0 3
4 29.9% 99.7% 0.1 0.0 2.0 4.2 6.0 6.3 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 29.8 4
5 19.8% 93.7% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.5 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 18.5 5
6 14.2% 15.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 12.0 2.2 6
7 7.6% 2.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.2 7
8 3.9% 3.9 8
9 1.4% 1.4 9
10 0.6% 0.6 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 73.4% 0.7 6.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.8 8.2 11.6 12.5 10.5 7.1 4.4 2.9 1.6 1.6 26.6 6.7 66.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.6
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 11.0