UC Davis
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
43  Sarah Sumpter JR 19:40
91  Alycia Cridebring JR 20:00
214  Katie Fry SO 20:24
422  Christine Hoffmann FR 20:50
507  Lauren Wallace JR 20:58
646  Kristine Lozoya SO 21:09
729  Rocki Lambdin SO 21:15
767  Shannon Harcus JR 21:18
1,256  Melinda Zavala JR 21:51
1,317  Hilary Teaford JR 21:55
1,327  Venus Shabgahi FR 21:55
1,367  Julia Yang FR 21:58
1,399  Anna Welsh FR 22:00
1,642  Erika Barr FR 22:16
2,108  Nicole Aha SO 22:46
2,189  Katherine Ott FR 22:51
National Rank #32 of 339
West Region Rank #6 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 8.1%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 3.5%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 10.5%
Top 10 in Regional 95.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sarah Sumpter Alycia Cridebring Katie Fry Christine Hoffmann Lauren Wallace Kristine Lozoya Rocki Lambdin Shannon Harcus Melinda Zavala Hilary Teaford Venus Shabgahi
Stanford Invitational 09/29 1195 21:30 21:32 21:03
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 644 19:31 19:57 20:29 20:51 20:50 21:21 21:08
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/13 1233 21:25 22:26 21:55 21:57
Big West Championships 10/27 743 19:44 20:14 20:25 21:05 21:11 21:22 21:17 22:04
Doc Adams Invitational 11/03 1253 21:43 22:21 22:12
West Region Championships 11/09 597 19:46 19:51 20:18 20:33 20:56 20:59 21:25





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 8.1% 21.1 503 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Region Championship 100% 7.2 226 0.2 0.7 9.6 27.3 25.6 16.9 10.0 5.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Sumpter 94.4% 43.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Alycia Cridebring 21.2% 71.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Katie Fry 8.1% 131.7
Christine Hoffmann 8.1% 197.7
Lauren Wallace 8.1% 212.8
Kristine Lozoya 8.1% 231.2
Rocki Lambdin 8.1% 237.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Sumpter 10.9 0.1 0.8 1.8 4.0 4.7 6.0 6.0 6.8 7.6 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.6 5.7 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8
Alycia Cridebring 21.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.7
Katie Fry 40.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.5
Christine Hoffmann 69.0
Lauren Wallace 80.2
Kristine Lozoya 97.9
Rocki Lambdin 107.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3
4 0.7% 86.1% 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 4
5 9.6% 40.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.1 5.7 3.9 5
6 27.3% 11.3% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.4 24.3 3.1 6
7 25.6% 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 25.3 0.3 7
8 16.9% 0.1% 0.0 16.9 0.0 8
9 10.0% 10.0 9
10 5.4% 5.4 10
11 2.5% 2.5 11
12 1.2% 1.2 12
13 0.5% 0.5 13
14 0.2% 0.2 14
15 0.0% 0.0 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 8.1% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.3 0.8 91.9 0.0 8.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Butler 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0