Yale
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
107  Melissa Chapman JR 20:04
147  Liana Epstein JR 20:14
162  Nihal Kayali SR 20:17
238  Emily Stark FR 20:27
380  Elizabeth Marvin SR 20:46
497  Caitlin Hudson SR 20:58
702  Anna Demaree SO 21:13
821  Isabel Amend FR 21:22
990  Kira Garry SO 21:33
1,041  Annelies Gamble SR 21:37
1,079  Shannon McDonnell FR 21:39
1,082  Sarah Barry JR 21:40
1,228  Jennifer Donnelly SR 21:49
1,519  Hannah Alpert SO 22:08
1,610  Jacqueline Sahlberg SR 22:14
1,854  Wendy DeWolfe JR 22:28
1,929  Tori Flannery SR 22:33
2,572  Elizabeth McDonald FR 23:21
3,433  Anna-Sophie Harling FR 25:12
National Rank #28 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #5 of 42
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 27.8%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 3.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 16.9%
Top 10 in Regional 91.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Melissa Chapman Liana Epstein Nihal Kayali Emily Stark Elizabeth Marvin Caitlin Hudson Anna Demaree Isabel Amend Kira Garry Annelies Gamble Shannon McDonnell
Lehigh's Paul Short Run (Gold) 09/28 612 20:09 20:27 20:05 20:22 20:28 20:35 21:07
All New England Championship 10/07 1211 21:09 21:17 21:54
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 598 20:00 20:02 20:21 20:24 20:42 21:20 22:37
CCSU Mini Meet 10/19 1206 21:31 21:42 21:19 21:39
Ivy League Championships 10/27 814 20:16 20:12 20:31 21:51 21:02 21:03 21:15 21:30 21:38
Northeast Region Championships 11/09 821 20:16 20:36 20:36 20:38 20:50 21:20 21:31





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 27.8% 26.4 602 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.5 4.6
Region Championship 100% 7.6 214 0.1 0.8 5.1 10.9 14.8 16.6 16.3 14.9 11.8 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Liana Epstein 35.2% 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nihal Kayali 32.3% 116.8
Emily Stark 28.4% 142.3
Elizabeth Marvin 27.8% 189.2
Caitlin Hudson 27.8% 214.1
Anna Demaree 27.8% 234.4
Isabel Amend 27.8% 242.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Liana Epstein 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.4
Nihal Kayali 25.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.4 3.2 3.2
Emily Stark 35.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Elizabeth Marvin 56.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4
Caitlin Hudson 68.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Anna Demaree 84.8
Isabel Amend 94.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 0.8% 100.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 3
4 5.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.1 4
5 10.9% 96.9% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 10.6 5
6 14.8% 65.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.0 5.2 9.6 6
7 16.6% 8.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 15.3 1.3 7
8 16.3% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.0 0.2 8
9 14.9% 0.1% 0.0 14.8 0.0 9
10 11.8% 11.8 10
11 5.6% 5.6 11
12 2.4% 2.4 12
13 0.6% 0.6 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
Total 100% 27.8% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 72.2 0.1 27.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Providence 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Villanova 78.2% 1.0 0.8
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 7.5% 3.0 0.2
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 2.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 7.4
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 15.0