Harvard
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
113  Viviana Hanley JR 20:06
135  Morgan Kelly SR 20:11
263  Emily Reese SR 20:32
386  Molly Renfer JR 20:46
523  Madeleine Ankhelyi FR 20:59
763  Jen Guidera JR 21:17
803  Sarah Gillespie FR 21:20
846  Selena Pasadyn SO 21:23
938  Caroline Marshall FR 21:29
1,098  Erika Veidis JR 21:39
1,155  Stephanie Deccy FR 21:43
1,526  Lauren DiNicola SR 22:05
1,897  Paige Kouba SO 22:28
2,031  Emma Payne SO 22:38
2,245  Ritchey Howe FR 22:52
National Rank #34 of 340
Northeast Region Rank #6 of 42
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 46.9%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.5%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 38.5%
Top 10 in Regional 97.6%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Viviana Hanley Morgan Kelly Emily Reese Molly Renfer Madeleine Ankhelyi Jen Guidera Sarah Gillespie Selena Pasadyn Caroline Marshall Erika Veidis Stephanie Deccy
Virginia Panorama Farms Invitational 09/28 890 20:13 20:23 21:46 20:49 21:06 23:10 21:13 21:23 21:34
Lehigh's Paul Short Run (Gold) 10/05 638 19:57 20:13 19:54 21:20 20:49 20:53 21:47 21:25 21:39
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 758 20:19 20:03 20:32 20:57 21:13 20:44 21:41 22:26
Princeton Invitational 10/19 1190 20:48 21:43
Ivy League Championships 11/02 654 19:59 20:00 20:31 20:36 21:05 21:36 20:43 21:53 21:31 21:16 21:49
Northeast Region Championships 11/15 795 20:04 20:23 21:11 20:25 20:55 21:41 21:46





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 46.9% 25.6 610 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.0 2.9
Region Championship 100% 6.2 206 0.5 6.9 12.7 18.4 20.8 15.1 11.1 7.9 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Viviana Hanley 50.1% 87.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Morgan Kelly 48.0% 101.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Emily Reese 47.0% 161.5
Molly Renfer 46.9% 196.8
Madeleine Ankhelyi 46.9% 220.7
Jen Guidera 46.9% 240.8
Sarah Gillespie 47.0% 242.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Viviana Hanley 18.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.9 6.7 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.0 5.1 4.4 3.7 4.0 3.0
Morgan Kelly 21.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.7 4.4 4.9 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.4
Emily Reese 38.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.3
Molly Renfer 54.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Madeleine Ankhelyi 69.4 0.0
Jen Guidera 89.2
Sarah Gillespie 92.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 2
3 6.9% 98.8% 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 6.8 3
4 12.7% 91.8% 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.0 11.7 4
5 18.4% 76.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.7 4.4 14.0 5
6 20.8% 50.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.0 3.1 10.4 10.4 6
7 15.1% 22.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 11.7 3.4 7
8 11.1% 2.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.8 0.2 8
9 7.9% 0.3% 0.0 7.9 0.0 9
10 4.3% 4.3 10
11 1.7% 1.7 11
12 0.5% 0.5 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
Total 100% 46.9% 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.8 5.1 6.4 7.7 7.3 8.1 53.1 0.5 46.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Vanderbilt 73.9% 1.0 0.7
Texas A&M 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Penn State 54.0% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 47.8% 1.0 0.5
Florida 29.1% 1.0 0.3
Mississippi 15.0% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.9% 1.0 0.1
Alabama 9.4% 1.0 0.1
BYU 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Texas 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Duke 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.1% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 4.8% 1.0 0.0
Toledo 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.5% 2.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.4
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 8.0