Michigan
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
31  Erin Finn FR 19:35
58  Shannon Osika SO 19:49
74  Taylor Pogue JR 19:54
76  Brook Handler JR 19:55
91  Taylor Manett SO 20:01
138  Megan Weschler JR 20:12
207  Anna Pasternak SO 20:24
447  Alex Leptich JR 20:52
843  Devon Hoppe SO 21:23
952  Tori Waidley FR 21:30
1,458  Brittany Robinson FR 22:01
1,725  Gabriella DeFlorio FR 22:17
1,923  Gina McNamara FR 22:30
National Rank #4 of 340
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 4.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 33.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 68.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.1%


Regional Champion 36.2%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Erin Finn Shannon Osika Taylor Pogue Brook Handler Taylor Manett Megan Weschler Anna Pasternak Alex Leptich Devon Hoppe Tori Waidley Brittany Robinson
Rim Rock Farm Classic 10/05 362 19:59 19:48 19:53 19:54 20:14 20:58 21:04 21:23 21:30 22:01
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 432 19:42 20:05 19:57 21:04 20:07 20:44 20:26
Big Ten Championships 11/03 425 19:34 20:04 20:19 20:10 20:04 20:31 20:23 21:24
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 245 19:23 19:39 19:41 19:49 20:08 20:20 21:38
NCAA Championship 11/23 295 19:32 19:48 19:54 19:48 20:31 20:10 21:00





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 8.5 285 4.2 6.5 7.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.1 6.0 5.5 4.7 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.0 67 36.2 32.0 28.1 3.3 0.5 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 100% 33.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.8
Shannon Osika 100.0% 59.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5
Brook Handler 100.0% 73.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
Taylor Manett 100.0% 88.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Megan Weschler 100.0% 118.8 0.0 0.0
Anna Pasternak 100.0% 153.1
Alex Leptich 100.0% 217.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 3.5 18.4 14.4 12.2 10.0 8.6 7.6 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.0 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Shannon Osika 9.3 1.9 4.0 4.9 4.6 6.0 7.0 6.2 6.9 6.3 6.8 6.3 6.7 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4
Brook Handler 12.3 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.8 5.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.9 6.0 5.3 5.5 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.9
Taylor Manett 15.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.5 6.0 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.4
Megan Weschler 21.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.2 3.5 4.4 4.2 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.4 4.7 4.7
Anna Pasternak 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.2 4.2
Alex Leptich 55.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 36.2% 100.0% 36.2 36.2 1
2 32.0% 100.0% 32.0 32.0 2
3 28.1% 100.0% 20.7 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 28.1 3
4 3.3% 99.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2 4
5 0.5% 96.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 5
6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 100.0% 36.2 32.0 20.7 5.3 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 68.1 31.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 100.0% 1.0 1.0
William and Mary 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Villanova 95.1% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 70.1% 1.0 0.7
Stanford 68.7% 1.0 0.7
Penn State 54.0% 2.0 1.1
Princeton 47.8% 1.0 0.5
Wisconsin 35.7% 1.0 0.4
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Kentucky 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Boise State 16.2% 1.0 0.2
Mississippi 15.0% 1.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Toledo 2.9% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.3
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 13.0