BYU
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
173  Andrea Harrison JR 20:18
227  Natalie Shields SO 20:26
302  Sarah Yingling SR 20:37
409  Lindsey Nielson SR 20:49
465  Nicole Nielsen SR 20:53
582  Makenna Smith SR 21:05
589  Rachel Stewart SO 21:05
751  Kelsey Brown JR 21:16
784  Maren Fassmann SR 21:19
841  Jennica Redd JR 21:23
National Rank #47 of 340
Mountain Region Rank #3 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 14.6%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.4%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 96.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Andrea Harrison Natalie Shields Sarah Yingling Lindsey Nielson Nicole Nielsen Makenna Smith Rachel Stewart Kelsey Brown Maren Fassmann Jennica Redd
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 744 20:30 20:07 20:35 21:08 20:25 20:50 20:53 21:17 21:23
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 850 20:28 20:28 20:45 20:43 21:14 21:35 20:44 21:24
West Coast Conference Championships 11/02 806 20:21 20:25 20:37 20:46 20:43 21:03 21:30 20:54 21:17
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 790 20:11 20:33 20:43 20:25 20:54 21:00 21:45
NCAA Championship 11/23 849 20:05 20:35 20:29 21:09 21:17 21:04 21:37





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 14.6% 28.1 698 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 4.2
Region Championship 100% 3.6 127 0.0 1.0 58.7 28.3 8.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrea Harrison 46.0% 122.7
Natalie Shields 27.0% 144.2
Sarah Yingling 16.9% 180.6
Lindsey Nielson 14.7% 204.1
Nicole Nielsen 14.7% 216.4
Makenna Smith 14.6% 233.3
Rachel Stewart 14.6% 233.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrea Harrison 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.0 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.6 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.0 7.3 6.6 5.1 4.4 4.8 2.9 2.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2
Natalie Shields 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.8 3.8 5.1 5.2 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.6 3.4 3.4 3.4
Sarah Yingling 24.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.8
Lindsey Nielson 32.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.4
Nicole Nielsen 36.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.4
Makenna Smith 45.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5
Rachel Stewart 46.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 1
2 1.0% 100.0% 1.0 1.0 2
3 58.7% 18.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 4.7 47.8 10.8 3
4 28.3% 9.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 25.5 2.8 4
5 8.5% 8.5 5
6 2.3% 2.3 6
7 1.0% 1.0 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 14.6% 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 5.3 85.4 1.0 13.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Notre Dame 74.1% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 47.8% 1.0 0.5
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Texas 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Duke 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.5% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0