California
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
11  Kelsey Santisteban JR 19:22
411  Heather Cerney JR 20:49
537  Mariel Mendoza SO 21:01
549  Xochitl Navarrete SO 21:02
646  Sydney Gray JR 21:10
853  Ashlyn Dadkhah SO 21:24
896  Molly Babcock FR 21:26
1,157  Julia Lipson SO 21:43
1,195  Laura O'Neill JR 21:45
1,281  Olivia Pear FR 21:50
1,371  Marissa Scott FR 21:57
1,696  Megan Bordes FR 22:16
1,878  Christine Bowlus JR 22:27
National Rank #58 of 340
West Region Rank #12 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.2%
Most Likely Finish 12th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.1%
Top 10 in Regional 26.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kelsey Santisteban Heather Cerney Mariel Mendoza Xochitl Navarrete Sydney Gray Ashlyn Dadkhah Molly Babcock Julia Lipson Laura O'Neill Olivia Pear Marissa Scott
Virginia Panorama Farms Invitational 09/28 869 19:34 20:29 21:04 21:19 21:21 21:25 22:01
Sacremento State Inter-Regional Jamboree 10/04 957 19:42 21:01 21:15 21:12 21:29 22:03 21:29 22:11 21:57
Pre-National Invitational (White) 10/19 806 19:27 20:32 21:05 20:52 20:55 21:13 22:26
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 21:15
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/19 21:32 21:32
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 869 19:08 20:34 21:02 21:44 21:21 22:40
West Region Championships 11/15 876 19:22 22:37 21:17 20:47 20:52 21:24 21:49
NCAA Championship 11/23 19:15





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.2% 25.7 614 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 11.8 342 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 7.0 13.0 16.8 20.7 17.3 10.0 4.6 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelsey Santisteban 100.0% 16.1 0.9 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.4
Heather Cerney 0.2% 161.5
Mariel Mendoza 0.2% 187.5
Xochitl Navarrete 0.2% 199.5
Sydney Gray 0.2% 218.5
Ashlyn Dadkhah 0.2% 224.5
Molly Babcock 0.2% 235.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelsey Santisteban 4.5 6.8 10.1 13.4 13.1 13.0 11.6 8.3 6.8 5.6 4.0 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Heather Cerney 68.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Mariel Mendoza 83.7
Xochitl Navarrete 85.8
Sydney Gray 96.7
Ashlyn Dadkhah 117.4
Molly Babcock 121.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.0% 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 4
5 0.1% 40.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5
6 0.6% 23.3% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 6
7 1.8% 1.1% 0.0 1.8 0.0 7
8 3.7% 3.7 8
9 7.0% 7.0 9
10 13.0% 13.0 10
11 16.8% 16.8 11
12 20.7% 20.7 12
13 17.3% 17.3 13
14 10.0% 10.0 14
15 4.6% 4.6 15
16 2.6% 2.6 16
17 1.1% 1.1 17
18 0.4% 0.4 18
19 0.2% 0.2 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Virginia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 1.0