Oregon
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
87  Megan Patrignelli SR 20:00
96  Annie Leblanc SO 20:03
131  Maggie Schmaedick FR 20:10
134  Molly Grabill SO 20:11
168  Abbey Leonardi SO 20:17
380  Sarah Penney SR 20:46
527  Maria Elbon JR 21:00
550  Lindsay Crevoiserat JR 21:02
781  Therese Haiss FR 21:18
885  Ashley Maton FR 21:26
940  Skylar Evans FR 21:29
2,323  Ally Aschbacher SO 22:57
National Rank #16 of 340
West Region Rank #3 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 94.7%
Most Likely Finish 18th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 3.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 18.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 74.7%


Regional Champion 5.3%
Top 5 in Regional 89.9%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Megan Patrignelli Annie Leblanc Maggie Schmaedick Molly Grabill Abbey Leonardi Sarah Penney Maria Elbon Lindsay Crevoiserat Therese Haiss Ashley Maton Skylar Evans
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/27 609 19:59 20:12 20:13 20:14 20:58 21:06 21:09
Bill Dellinger Invitational 10/05 735 20:01 20:33 20:29 20:32 20:45 20:59 21:28 21:19 21:28
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 434 19:54 20:10 20:06 20:00 20:12 20:38 20:56
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 502 20:02 20:13 20:09 20:32 20:08 20:31 20:19 21:40
West Region Championships 11/15 469 20:18 19:57 20:09 19:54 20:15 20:55 21:40
NCAA Championship 11/23 452 19:57 19:55 20:02 20:10 20:25 21:43 21:16





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 94.7% 15.7 412 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.4 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2
Region Championship 100% 3.6 136 5.3 23.1 23.8 21.1 16.6 6.2 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Megan Patrignelli 94.7% 85.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Annie Leblanc 94.7% 93.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Maggie Schmaedick 94.7% 112.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Molly Grabill 94.7% 114.3
Abbey Leonardi 94.7% 130.5 0.0 0.0
Sarah Penney 94.7% 205.9
Maria Elbon 94.7% 228.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Megan Patrignelli 18.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 3.4 5.4 5.1 6.2 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.3 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.3 2.5
Annie Leblanc 19.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.7 4.0 2.9 3.5
Maggie Schmaedick 26.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4
Molly Grabill 27.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8
Abbey Leonardi 33.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
Sarah Penney 65.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maria Elbon 83.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.3% 100.0% 5.3 5.3 1
2 23.1% 100.0% 23.1 23.1 2
3 23.8% 100.0% 2.9 17.3 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.8 3
4 21.1% 99.1% 1.0 8.4 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 21.0 4
5 16.6% 95.4% 0.2 4.6 2.7 2.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 15.9 5
6 6.2% 78.0% 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4 4.8 6
7 2.5% 35.8% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.9 7
8 0.9% 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 8
9 0.4% 0.4 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 0.0% 0.0 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 94.7% 5.3 23.1 2.9 18.2 11.3 9.5 5.7 4.6 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.0 5.3 28.4 66.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
William and Mary 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Villanova 95.1% 1.0 1.0
Cornell 80.6% 1.0 0.8
Stanford 68.7% 2.0 1.4
Penn State 54.0% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 47.8% 1.0 0.5
Wisconsin 35.7% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 33.7% 1.0 0.3
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Boston College 31.0% 1.0 0.3
Kentucky 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Boise State 16.2% 2.0 0.3
Mississippi 15.0% 1.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Toledo 2.9% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.4
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 14.0