Portland
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
140  Laura Hottenrott SO 20:13
144  Gina Paletta SR 20:14
208  Tansey Lystad JR 20:24
529  Anne Luijten SO 21:00
681  Marit Tegelaar SR 21:12
707  Julia Fonk JR 21:13
953  Natasha Verma SR 21:30
1,218  Lindsay Tompkins FR 21:47
1,457  Anna Farello FR 22:01
1,510  Julia Gullikson FR 22:04
2,363  Marci Witczak JR 23:00
National Rank #42 of 340
West Region Rank #9 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 2.9%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.4%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 2.6%
Top 10 in Regional 68.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Laura Hottenrott Gina Paletta Tansey Lystad Anne Luijten Marit Tegelaar Julia Fonk Natasha Verma Lindsay Tompkins Anna Farello Julia Gullikson Marci Witczak
Bill Dellinger Invitational 10/05 871 20:09 20:35 21:15 20:46 20:51 21:12 21:09 22:08 21:49 23:06
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 973 20:30 20:36 21:06 20:57 21:06 21:44 22:15
Beaver Classic 10/25 1255 21:49 22:04 22:07 22:56
West Coast Conference Championships 11/02 732 19:55 19:57 20:33 20:59 21:54 21:05 21:50 21:44 22:09
West Region Championships 11/15 775 20:20 20:14 19:59 21:11 21:24 21:49 21:35





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 2.9% 24.1 572 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 9.5 283 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.8 10.7 15.1 17.8 16.5 13.1 9.7 5.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hottenrott 4.7% 90.6 0.0
Gina Paletta 4.3% 94.3 0.0
Tansey Lystad 3.1% 115.5
Anne Luijten 2.9% 209.3
Marit Tegelaar 2.9% 227.3
Julia Fonk 2.9% 229.8
Natasha Verma 2.9% 245.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hottenrott 28.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.0
Gina Paletta 29.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.2
Tansey Lystad 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7
Anne Luijten 83.6
Marit Tegelaar 100.1
Julia Fonk 103.1
Natasha Verma 126.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 2
3 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 3
4 0.6% 73.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 4
5 1.9% 44.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 5
6 5.8% 19.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.7 1.1 6
7 10.7% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.4 7
8 15.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.1 8
9 17.8% 17.8 9
10 16.5% 16.5 10
11 13.1% 13.1 11
12 9.7% 9.7 12
13 5.1% 5.1 13
14 2.1% 2.1 14
15 1.0% 1.0 15
16 0.3% 0.3 16
17 0.2% 0.2 17
18 0.1% 0.1 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 2.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 97.1 0.0 2.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
BYU 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0