Stanford
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
4  Aisling Cuffe JR 19:10
16  Jessica Tonn SR 19:25
185  Cami Chapus SO 20:20
215  Megan Lacy SO 20:25
301  Rebecca Mehra SO 20:37
387  Sophie Chase FR 20:46
393  Molly McNamara JR 20:47
488  Claudia Saunders SO 20:55
548  Tate Murray SR 21:02
1,084  Mary Kate Anselmini JR 21:38
1,528  Jaye Buchbinder JR 22:06
1,561  Sophia Ginez SR 22:08
1,609  Hannah Brown SO 22:11
1,778  Justine Fedronic SR 22:20
2,850  Danielle Katz FR 23:36
3,068  Aimee Trujillo JR 23:59
National Rank #15 of 340
West Region Rank #2 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 89.6%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 2.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 17.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 80.1%


Regional Champion 3.5%
Top 5 in Regional 89.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aisling Cuffe Jessica Tonn Cami Chapus Megan Lacy Rebecca Mehra Sophie Chase Molly McNamara Claudia Saunders Tate Murray Mary Kate Anselmini Jaye Buchbinder
Stanford Invitational 09/28 560 19:44 19:44 20:38 20:16 20:58 20:43 20:54 21:20 22:25
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 476 19:19 19:22 20:22 20:42 20:23 20:54
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/19 21:04 21:55 21:50
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 560 18:55 19:25 20:54 20:44 20:29 21:24 21:05 21:41
West Region Championships 11/15 344 19:08 19:24 20:09 20:02 20:26
NCAA Championship 11/23 407 19:03 19:21 20:07 20:26 20:31 21:01 20:48





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 89.6% 14.7 390 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.4 2.9 3.8 4.6 4.8 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.2 6.6 7.3 6.9 6.4 4.8 3.3 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.9 141 3.5 14.2 22.4 27.5 21.8 6.8 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aisling Cuffe 100% 6.6 6.0 10.3 8.7 8.1 7.4 5.9 5.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.0 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Jessica Tonn 99.7% 19.9 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.4
Cami Chapus 89.6% 139.0
Megan Lacy 89.6% 152.7 0.0
Rebecca Mehra 89.6% 185.7
Sophie Chase 89.6% 205.5
Molly McNamara 89.6% 206.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aisling Cuffe 2.0 26.2 23.1 17.9 12.1 7.7 4.3 3.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jessica Tonn 5.3 2.6 7.1 11.1 13.1 12.8 11.4 10.5 8.4 7.0 5.6 4.1 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cami Chapus 36.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2
Megan Lacy 41.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.7
Rebecca Mehra 55.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Sophie Chase 66.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Molly McNamara 66.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 3.5% 100.0% 3.5 3.5 1
2 14.2% 100.0% 14.2 14.2 2
3 22.4% 98.6% 0.6 6.5 3.8 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 0.2 0.3 22.1 3
4 27.5% 95.7% 0.6 6.0 4.3 5.0 2.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.6 1.2 26.3 4
5 21.8% 82.0% 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 3.9 17.9 5
6 6.8% 68.6% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.1 4.7 6
7 2.5% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6 0.8 7
8 1.0% 17.6% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 89.6% 3.5 14.2 0.6 7.1 9.9 10.0 9.1 6.3 4.5 3.8 3.9 3.5 4.5 5.7 3.1 10.4 17.7 71.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Villanova 95.1% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 54.0% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 47.8% 1.0 0.5
Arizona State 33.7% 1.0 0.3
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Kentucky 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Boise State 16.2% 1.0 0.2
Mississippi 15.0% 1.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Toledo 2.9% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 8.0