Harvard
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
335  Molly Renfer SR 20:41
344  Caroline Marshall SO 20:41
397  Whitney Thornburg SR 20:47
452  Alaina Alvarez SR 20:53
571  Viviana Hanley SR 21:02
619  Paige Kouba JR 21:06
637  Courtney Smith FR 21:07
761  Sarah Gillespie SO 21:16
787  Stephanie Deccy SO 21:18
811  Elianna Shwayder FR 21:20
893  Jen Guidera SR 21:26
895  Rachel Hampton SO 21:26
1,115  Annika Gompers FR 21:40
1,337  Fiona Davis FR 21:54
1,436  Madeleine Ankhelyi SO 22:00
1,675  Emma Payne JR 22:13
1,763  Sarah Angell FR 22:20
National Rank #71 of 341
Northeast Region Rank #12 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 4.5%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.1%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 14.2%
Top 10 in Regional 74.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Molly Renfer Caroline Marshall Whitney Thornburg Alaina Alvarez Viviana Hanley Paige Kouba Courtney Smith Sarah Gillespie Stephanie Deccy Elianna Shwayder Jen Guidera
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/26 935 21:22 20:41 20:36 20:48 20:58 20:45 22:32 21:08 21:10
Lehigh Paul Short Run (Gold) 10/04 1140 21:00 21:29 21:44 20:53
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 1005 20:39 20:48 20:49 21:48 20:58 21:20
Princeton Invitational 10/18 1198 21:37 21:16 21:25
Ivy League Championships 11/01 940 20:45 21:00 20:48 20:49 20:43 21:22 20:45 21:21 21:06 21:53
Northeast Region Championships 11/14 957 20:15 20:43 21:12 20:54 21:10 21:21 21:22





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 4.5% 29.2 695 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.1
Region Championship 100% 8.5 244 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 6.5 9.1 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.8 11.7 8.3 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Renfer 4.5% 160.5
Caroline Marshall 4.5% 157.0
Whitney Thornburg 4.5% 172.0
Alaina Alvarez 4.5% 190.0
Viviana Hanley 4.5% 205.8
Paige Kouba 4.5% 215.0
Courtney Smith 4.5% 217.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Renfer 37.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.1
Caroline Marshall 38.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.2 1.8 2.4
Whitney Thornburg 44.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1
Alaina Alvarez 53.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6
Viviana Hanley 68.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Paige Kouba 74.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Courtney Smith 76.2 0.0 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 0.9% 100.0% 0.9 0.9 2
3 2.3% 55.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 3
4 4.4% 28.4% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2 1.3 4
5 6.5% 10.8% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.8 0.7 5
6 9.1% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.2 6
7 11.9% 11.9 7
8 12.4% 12.4 8
9 13.0% 13.0 9
10 13.8% 13.8 10
11 11.7% 11.7 11
12 8.3% 8.3 12
13 3.6% 3.6 13
14 1.6% 1.6 14
15 0.3% 0.3 15
16 0.1% 0.1 16
17 0.0% 0.0 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 4.5% 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 95.5 1.1 3.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Yale 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0