Iowa State
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
6  Crystal Nelson JR 19:04
11  Katy Moen SR 19:12
36  Bethanie Brown SO 19:42
47  Margaret Connelly SR 19:47
114  Perez Rotich SO 20:06
241  Erin Hooker FR 20:30
376  Taylor McDowell SO 20:45
427  Colleen Riley SO 20:50
453  Heidi Engelhardt SO 20:53
499  Julie Wiemerslage SO 20:56
1,433  Madison Nagle SO 22:00
National Rank #2 of 341
Midwest Region Rank #1 of 36
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 12.5%
Top 5 at Nationals 89.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 99.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 99.9%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Crystal Nelson Katy Moen Bethanie Brown Margaret Connelly Perez Rotich Erin Hooker Taylor McDowell Colleen Riley Heidi Engelhardt Julie Wiemerslage Madison Nagle
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 218 18:45 18:47 19:34 20:05 20:10 21:21 20:39 20:36 21:15 20:56 22:00
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 289 18:48 18:56 19:37 20:13 20:24 20:49 20:59
Big 12 Championship 11/01 291 19:14 19:23 19:41 20:18 20:10 20:55 20:53 20:51
Midwest Region Championships 11/14 587 19:59 19:58 20:24 20:24 20:45 20:40 21:03
NCAA Championship 11/22 193 19:06 19:08 19:49 19:54 19:54 20:39 20:52





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 3.1 173 12.5 34.4 22.4 12.9 7.5 4.7 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.0 27 99.9 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Crystal Nelson 100% 6.7 2.5 5.8 7.2 9.9 9.0 9.6 8.4 7.8 6.3 6.1 5.2 4.2 3.2 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
Katy Moen 100% 10.2 0.5 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.1 6.8 6.6 7.3 6.8 7.0 6.7 5.9 5.3 4.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9
Bethanie Brown 100% 41.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.8
Margaret Connelly 100% 51.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3
Perez Rotich 100% 100.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Erin Hooker 100% 166.5
Taylor McDowell 100% 201.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Crystal Nelson 1.0 65.7 28.0 5.8 0.5 0.1
Katy Moen 1.5 25.0 54.0 17.9 2.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bethanie Brown 4.4 0.4 12.9 27.0 22.8 14.9 9.3 4.9 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Margaret Connelly 5.4 0.1 5.8 17.0 20.9 17.5 13.5 8.6 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Perez Rotich 10.6 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.4 8.4 10.1 10.7 8.4 8.0 7.5 6.3 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.6 2.4 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
Erin Hooker 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8
Taylor McDowell 39.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 99.9% 100.0% 99.9 99.9 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
Total 100% 100.0% 99.9 0.1 0.0 100.0 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
New Mexico 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
West Virginia 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 99.9% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 99.3% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 99.2% 2.0 2.0
Virginia 98.7% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.1% 2.0 2.0
Boise State 97.6% 2.0 2.0
Baylor 96.5% 2.0 1.9
Washington 90.1% 1.0 0.9
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
Ohio State 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 82.3% 1.0 0.8
Toledo 67.0% 1.0 0.7
Arizona State 64.7% 2.0 1.3
UCLA 62.5% 1.0 0.6
Boston College 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 1.0 0.5
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 2.0 0.9
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Oklahoma State 5.1% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kansas State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 26.6
Minimum 18.0
Maximum 31.0