Michigan State
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
5  Rachele Schulist SO 19:02
10  Leah O'Connor SR 19:11
17  Lindsay Clark JR 19:26
29  Julia Otwell SR 19:39
51  Sara Kroll SR 19:49
84  Alexis Wiersma SO 19:58
118  Katie Landwehr JR 20:07
144  Sara Stassen JR 20:14
297  Emma Drenth SR 20:36
475  Melanie Brender SR 20:55
National Rank #1 of 341
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 72.9%
Top 5 at Nationals 99.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 100.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 98.5%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Rachele Schulist Leah O'Connor Lindsay Clark Julia Otwell Sara Kroll Alexis Wiersma Katie Landwehr Sara Stassen Emma Drenth Melanie Brender
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 133 18:50 19:26 19:28 20:01 19:40 19:45 20:10 20:17 20:37 21:03
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 113 18:52 19:09 19:24 19:40 19:44 20:19 19:51
Big Ten Conference Championships 11/02 162 19:29 19:02 19:35 19:39 19:53 19:59 20:11 20:12 20:49
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/14 167 19:18 19:18 19:39 19:38 19:56 19:54 20:14
NCAA Championship 11/22 105 18:53 19:18 19:13 19:26 19:52 19:56 20:16





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.4 108 72.9 17.5 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.0 28 98.5 1.5 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Rachele Schulist 100% 5.9 3.0 7.2 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 9.2 7.2 6.3 5.8 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Leah O'Connor 100% 9.7 0.9 1.6 3.4 5.0 6.1 7.0 7.1 6.7 7.5 6.9 5.9 6.1 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7
Lindsay Clark 100% 19.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.1 4.0 3.9 4.5 5.1 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.6
Julia Otwell 100% 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0
Sara Kroll 100% 56.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9
Alexis Wiersma 100% 78.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Katie Landwehr 100% 103.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Rachele Schulist 1.5 24.1 50.1 19.9 4.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Leah O'Connor 2.4 5.3 24.0 46.8 15.6 5.2 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lindsay Clark 4.1 0.2 2.0 10.3 35.3 21.7 12.5 7.9 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Julia Otwell 6.7 0.1 0.8 6.2 16.2 16.7 14.2 12.0 8.4 7.7 5.2 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sara Kroll 10.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 6.3 9.0 10.2 10.4 9.5 9.4 8.1 6.7 5.6 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3
Alexis Wiersma 13.7 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.6 4.3 6.0 6.2 7.6 7.1 8.6 7.7 7.0 7.6 5.5 4.7 4.0 3.7 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5
Katie Landwehr 18.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.5 3.4 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.6 5.9 6.1 6.7 5.4 5.5 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.3 3.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 98.5% 100.0% 98.5 98.5 1
2 1.5% 100.0% 1.5 1.5 2
3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 100.0% 98.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
New Mexico 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 100.0% 2.0 2.0
West Virginia 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 99.9% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 99.3% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 99.2% 2.0 2.0
Virginia 98.7% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.1% 3.0 2.9
Boise State 97.6% 2.0 2.0
Baylor 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 94.8% 1.0 0.9
Washington 90.1% 1.0 0.9
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
Ohio State 84.5% 2.0 1.7
Syracuse 82.3% 1.0 0.8
Toledo 67.0% 1.0 0.7
Arizona State 64.7% 2.0 1.3
UCLA 62.5% 1.0 0.6
Boston College 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 1.0 0.5
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 2.0 0.9
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Penn State 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Illinois 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 31.5
Minimum 23.0
Maximum 36.0