North Carolina
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
31  Annie LeHardy JR 19:39
50  Lianne Farber SR 19:49
145  Caroline Alcorta FR 20:14
168  Karley Rempel JR 20:18
221  Elizabeth Whelan SO 20:27
305  Hannah Christen FR 20:37
742  Josette Norris FR 21:15
1,210  Emma Astrike-Davis FR 21:46
2,156  Mattie Webb JR 22:43
National Rank #13 of 341
Southeast Region Rank #1 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.4%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 6.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 34.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 85.7%


Regional Champion 37.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Annie LeHardy Lianne Farber Caroline Alcorta Karley Rempel Elizabeth Whelan Hannah Christen Josette Norris Emma Astrike-Davis Mattie Webb
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 391 19:32 19:27 19:58 20:25 20:23 21:20 20:51
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 497 19:45 19:38 20:01 20:21 20:55 21:26 21:29
ACC Championships 10/31 355 19:37 19:45 20:10 19:53 20:13 20:21 21:09 21:53 22:43
3 Stripe Invite 11/08 22:02
Southeast Region Championships 11/14 533 19:39 19:58 20:33 20:21 20:58 20:23 21:18
NCAA Championship 11/22 654 19:48 20:32 20:32 20:28 20:27 20:30 21:32





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.4% 13.6 394 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.8 4.1 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 6.2 6.5 5.8 6.4 5.4 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.4 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2
Region Championship 100% 2.1 79 37.2 28.6 21.2 10.8 2.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Annie LeHardy 100% 36.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2
Lianne Farber 99.8% 54.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1
Caroline Alcorta 99.4% 123.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Karley Rempel 99.4% 134.9
Elizabeth Whelan 99.4% 160.2
Hannah Christen 99.4% 183.6
Josette Norris 99.4% 242.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Annie LeHardy 2.0 32.2 18.4 12.8 9.2 7.2 5.8 3.8 2.9 2.3 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lianne Farber 4.8 7.7 13.6 10.8 10.9 8.9 7.9 7.7 6.3 5.8 4.5 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Caroline Alcorta 17.1 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.2 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.9
Karley Rempel 20.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.2 3.4 3.2
Elizabeth Whelan 28.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.1
Hannah Christen 37.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8
Josette Norris 80.7 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 37.2% 100.0% 37.2 37.2 1
2 28.6% 100.0% 28.6 28.6 2
3 21.2% 100.0% 17.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 21.2 3
4 10.8% 99.6% 4.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8 4
5 2.1% 78.8% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 99.4% 37.2 28.6 17.0 8.4 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 65.8 33.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 98.7% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.1% 2.0 2.0
Boise State 97.6% 2.0 2.0
Baylor 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Washington 90.1% 1.0 0.9
North Carolina St. 88.8% 1.0 0.9
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
Ohio State 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 82.3% 2.0 1.6
Toledo 67.0% 1.0 0.7
Arizona State 64.7% 2.0 1.3
UCLA 62.5% 1.0 0.6
Boston College 55.0% 2.0 1.1
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 2.0 1.0
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 2.0 0.9
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Virginia Tech 4.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 20.4
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 26.0