Oregon
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
68  Waverly Neer JR 19:55
79  Lindsay Crevoiserat SR 19:57
80  Frida Berge FR 19:57
86  Molly Grabill JR 19:59
94  Alli Cash FR 20:01
97  Megan Patrignelli SR 20:02
124  Abbey Leonardi JR 20:09
142  Annie Leblanc JR 20:13
161  Maggie Schmaedick SO 20:17
267  Brianna Nerud JR 20:33
496  Ashley Maton SO 20:56
618  Nikki Hiltz FR 21:06
National Rank #7 of 341
West Region Rank #1 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Nationals


National Champion 0.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 31.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 71.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.8%


Regional Champion 61.6%
Top 5 in Regional 99.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Waverly Neer Lindsay Crevoiserat Frida Berge Molly Grabill Alli Cash Megan Patrignelli Abbey Leonardi Annie Leblanc Maggie Schmaedick Brianna Nerud Ashley Maton
Washington Invitational 10/04 502 19:58 20:08 20:09 20:17 20:35 20:24 20:35 20:16 20:19 20:55
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/18 359 20:13 19:57 20:00 19:54 20:14 19:57 20:03
Pac-12 Championships 10/31 346 19:57 20:08 19:51 19:57 19:58 20:02 20:21 20:11 20:01 21:02
West Region Championships 11/14 389 19:53 19:52 20:04 20:01 20:12 21:04 20:57
NCAA Championship 11/22 335 19:52 20:01 20:00 19:51 19:53 20:01 20:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 8.6 304 0.8 3.4 6.5 9.2 11.2 10.2 8.8 8.9 7.1 5.5 5.1 4.4 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.6 82 61.6 24.3 9.3 3.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Waverly Neer 99.8% 70.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4
Frida Berge 99.8% 76.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2
Molly Grabill 99.8% 82.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Alli Cash 99.8% 87.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Megan Patrignelli 99.8% 88.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Annie Leblanc 99.8% 121.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maggie Schmaedick 99.8% 131.0 0.0 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Waverly Neer 12.5 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.7 6.5 6.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4
Frida Berge 13.8 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.8 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.4 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.7
Molly Grabill 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.1 4.8 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.8 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.0
Alli Cash 16.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 3.6 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.5
Megan Patrignelli 17.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.3 4.3 5.4 5.3 5.5 4.2 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.1
Annie Leblanc 26.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.6
Maggie Schmaedick 30.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 61.6% 100.0% 61.6 61.6 1
2 24.3% 100.0% 24.3 24.3 2
3 9.3% 100.0% 2.6 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 3
4 3.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 4
5 1.0% 97.9% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 5
6 0.4% 77.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6
7 0.1% 57.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7
8 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.8% 61.6 24.3 2.6 3.5 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 85.8 14.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 99.3% 2.0 2.0
Colorado 99.1% 2.0 2.0
Baylor 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 94.8% 1.0 0.9
Washington 90.1% 2.0 1.8
North Carolina St. 88.8% 1.0 0.9
Arizona State 64.7% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 62.5% 2.0 1.2
Princeton 19.9% 1.0 0.2
Penn State 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.4% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 7.3% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Yale 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Rice 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Villanova 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Kansas State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 3.0 0.0
Furman 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 11.1
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 17.0