Portland
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
21  Tansey Lystad SR 19:29
275  Anne Luijten JR 20:33
295  Sanna Mustonen SR 20:36
394  Julia Fonk SR 20:47
426  Lauren LaRocco FR 20:50
585  Anna Farello SO 21:03
666  Maddie Hibshman SR 21:09
696  Julia Gullikson SO 21:11
708  Megan Morgan SR 21:12
1,138  Marci Witczak SR 21:41
1,301  Melissa Hastings SR 21:52
1,341  Lindsay Tompkins SO 21:54
1,474  Grace McConnochie SO 22:03
1,660  Calli Vanderwilde JR 22:13
National Rank #37 of 341
West Region Rank #8 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 17.1%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 3.9%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 16.1%
Top 10 in Regional 93.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Tansey Lystad Anne Luijten Sanna Mustonen Julia Fonk Lauren LaRocco Anna Farello Maddie Hibshman Julia Gullikson Megan Morgan Marci Witczak Melissa Hastings
Washington Invitational 10/04 764 20:00 20:45 20:27 20:46 20:37 20:58 20:52 21:03 21:11
Portland State Viking Classic 10/04 1249 21:40 21:54
Beaver Classic 10/24 1218 21:07 21:45
West Coast Championships 11/01 800 19:47 20:28 20:44 20:56 20:57 21:11 21:12 21:19 21:55
West Region Championships 11/14 710 19:24 20:25 20:39 20:38 20:56 21:00 21:29
NCAA Championship 11/22 19:16





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 17.1% 23.9 559 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.7
Region Championship 100% 7.4 238 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 10.4 16.5 20.9 20.7 12.0 7.1 3.5 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tansey Lystad 99.9% 22.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.4
Anne Luijten 17.2% 151.5
Sanna Mustonen 17.1% 160.8
Julia Fonk 17.1% 186.6
Lauren LaRocco 17.1% 191.1
Anna Farello 17.1% 217.7
Maddie Hibshman 17.1% 228.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tansey Lystad 4.7 0.4 3.4 12.1 20.4 21.1 16.7 9.5 5.2 3.4 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Anne Luijten 47.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
Sanna Mustonen 51.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6
Julia Fonk 63.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Lauren LaRocco 67.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Anna Farello 86.2
Maddie Hibshman 95.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 2
3 1.4% 97.1% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 3
4 3.9% 80.9% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.1 4
5 10.4% 60.9% 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 4.1 6.4 5
6 16.5% 31.8% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.1 11.3 5.3 6
7 20.9% 3.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 20.2 0.6 7
8 20.7% 0.1% 0.0 20.7 0.0 8
9 12.0% 12.0 9
10 7.1% 7.1 10
11 3.5% 3.5 11
12 2.2% 2.2 12
13 0.7% 0.7 13
14 0.3% 0.3 14
15 0.1% 0.1 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 17.1% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.1 0.0 82.9 0.4 16.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Villanova 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 1.0