Providence
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
48  Catarina Rocha SO 19:47
87  Katie Lembo FR 19:59
115  Lauren Mullins JR 20:07
304  Brianna Ilarda FR 20:37
484  Mackenzie Barry FR 20:55
727  Molly Keating JR 21:14
805  Katelyn Sischo JR 21:19
962  Julie Solimine SR 21:31
1,260  Caile Kohlbrenner SR 21:50
1,490  Jillian Fanning FR 22:04
1,861  Devyn Pryor SR 22:26
1,871  Kathleen Powell JR 22:26
2,576  Caitlin Lawlor FR 23:14
National Rank #21 of 341
Northeast Region Rank #2 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 68.3%
Most Likely Finish 19th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 41.4%


Regional Champion 19.7%
Top 5 in Regional 90.9%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Catarina Rocha Katie Lembo Lauren Mullins Brianna Ilarda Mackenzie Barry Molly Keating Katelyn Sischo Julie Solimine Caile Kohlbrenner Jillian Fanning Devyn Pryor
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/26 758 19:58 20:04 20:43 20:59 20:59 22:05 21:45
NWICAAA Championship 10/11 1208 21:14 21:15 21:38 22:01 22:06
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 716 19:55 19:53 20:28 20:56 21:12 21:44
CCSU Mini Meet 10/24 1144 20:40 21:30 21:14 21:50 22:06 22:44
Big East Conference Championships 10/31 705 19:46 20:16 20:30 20:36 21:04 21:10 21:03 21:22 22:02
Northeast Region Championships 11/14 597 19:45 19:51 20:21 20:36 20:50 21:21 22:01
NCAA Championship 11/22 500 19:34 19:56 19:54 20:29 20:46 21:00 21:28





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 68.3% 19.0 480 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.1 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.3
Region Championship 100% 3.0 129 19.7 28.8 21.6 12.6 8.1 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Catarina Rocha 94.2% 51.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0
Katie Lembo 70.8% 74.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Lauren Mullins 68.7% 94.5 0.0 0.1
Brianna Ilarda 68.3% 174.6
Mackenzie Barry 68.3% 213.8
Molly Keating 68.3% 238.4
Katelyn Sischo 68.3% 243.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Catarina Rocha 6.3 1.3 11.5 11.9 11.4 11.5 8.9 8.5 7.8 6.5 5.1 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
Katie Lembo 11.2 0.1 1.2 2.8 4.1 5.2 6.1 7.1 7.5 7.2 7.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 5.7 5.5 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5
Lauren Mullins 14.9 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.3 4.4 3.5 3.7 2.5 2.4 1.5
Brianna Ilarda 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.6
Mackenzie Barry 56.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5
Molly Keating 87.9
Katelyn Sischo 96.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 19.7% 100.0% 19.7 19.7 1
2 28.8% 100.0% 28.8 28.8 2
3 21.6% 66.0% 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.2 7.3 14.2 3
4 12.6% 32.9% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 8.5 4.2 4
5 8.1% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 7.0 1.1 5
6 4.1% 3.4% 0.1 0.1 4.0 0.1 6
7 2.7% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 7
8 1.1% 1.1 8
9 0.7% 0.7 9
10 0.3% 0.3 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 68.3% 19.7 28.8 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 3.8 31.7 48.6 19.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 3.0% 2.0 0.1
New Hampshire 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 2.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 2.0 0.0
Lipscomb 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Villanova 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.6
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0