Stanford
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
12  Elise Cranny FR 19:17
117  Emma Fisher FR 20:07
120  Sophie Chase SO 20:08
134  Molly McNamara SR 20:12
179  Rebecca Mehra JR 20:20
201  Claire Howlett FR 20:23
255  Vanessa Fraser SO 20:32
310  Claudia Saunders JR 20:37
315  Julia Maxwell FR 20:38
329  Abbie McNulty FR 20:40
489  Danielle Katz SO 20:55
724  Anna Laman FR 21:14
1,072  Amy Weissenbach SO 21:38
1,930  Jaye Buchbinder SR 22:30
National Rank #11 of 341
West Region Rank #2 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.5%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 11.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 49.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 93.1%


Regional Champion 23.4%
Top 5 in Regional 98.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Elise Cranny Emma Fisher Sophie Chase Molly McNamara Rebecca Mehra Claire Howlett Vanessa Fraser Claudia Saunders Julia Maxwell Abbie McNulty Danielle Katz
Stanford Invitational 09/27 786 20:22 20:22 20:31 20:48 20:39 21:17
Washington Invitational 10/04 508 19:40 20:11 20:12 20:15 20:28 20:50 20:26
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 372 19:06 20:13 19:57 20:16 20:01 20:13 20:43
Bronco Invitational 10/18 20:24 20:38
Pac-12 Championships 10/31 399 19:29 19:59 20:13 19:59 20:16 20:47 20:20 20:42
West Region Championships 11/14 386 19:02 20:04 19:57 19:49 20:54 20:40 20:39
NCAA Championship 11/22 521 19:14 20:00 20:21 20:35 20:40 20:26 20:48





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.5% 11.4 357 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.4 106 23.4 36.0 24.7 10.6 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elise Cranny 100% 13.2 0.3 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 5.1 6.1 5.8 5.5 4.6 5.3 5.6 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.5
Emma Fisher 99.5% 103.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Sophie Chase 99.5% 106.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Molly McNamara 99.5% 116.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rebecca Mehra 99.5% 140.6 0.0
Claire Howlett 99.5% 148.5
Vanessa Fraser 99.5% 171.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elise Cranny 2.9 4.9 13.0 37.0 20.7 12.2 6.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Emma Fisher 21.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.6
Sophie Chase 22.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.9
Molly McNamara 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.9
Rebecca Mehra 33.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.9
Claire Howlett 36.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0
Vanessa Fraser 46.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 23.4% 100.0% 23.4 23.4 1
2 36.0% 100.0% 36.0 36.0 2
3 24.7% 100.0% 16.0 6.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 24.7 3
4 10.6% 99.8% 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6 4
5 3.7% 97.3% 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.6 5
6 1.2% 89.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 6
7 0.3% 41.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.5% 23.4 36.0 16.0 7.7 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 59.4 40.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 99.9% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Colorado 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 98.7% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.1% 1.0 1.0
Boise State 97.6% 1.0 1.0
Washington 90.1% 3.0 2.7
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
Ohio State 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 82.3% 1.0 0.8
Toledo 67.0% 1.0 0.7
Arizona State 64.7% 2.0 1.3
UCLA 62.5% 3.0 1.9
Boston College 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 1.0 0.5
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 1.0 0.4
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Villanova 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.3
Minimum 10.0
Maximum 24.0