Toledo
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
108  Mackenzie Chojnacky SR 20:05
170  Brooke Tullis SR 20:18
322  Cara DeAngelis SR 20:39
340  Janelle Noe SO 20:41
373  Liz Weiler SR 20:45
455  Priscilla Timmons SR 20:53
542  Megan Gaysunas SR 21:00
791  Megan Vogelsong SR 21:19
822  Lindsey Burdette JR 21:21
1,271  Sharon Morgan SR 21:50
1,500  Theresa Warsecke SO 22:04
1,726  Julia Pusateri JR 22:17
2,136  Stephanie Ingraham SR 22:42
2,376  Maja Pacaric SO 22:58
National Rank #38 of 341
Great Lakes Region Rank #6 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 74.9%
Most Likely Finish 31st at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 10.9%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 54.5%
Top 10 in Regional 99.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mackenzie Chojnacky Brooke Tullis Cara DeAngelis Janelle Noe Liz Weiler Priscilla Timmons Megan Gaysunas Megan Vogelsong Lindsey Burdette Sharon Morgan Theresa Warsecke
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/03 810 20:07 20:44 20:41 20:39 20:51 20:45 20:50 21:20 21:45
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 673 19:59 20:04 20:38 21:29 20:38 20:39 21:06
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/18 1227 21:30 21:16 21:56 22:04
MAC Championship 11/01 806 20:06 20:31 20:48 20:41 20:49 21:01 20:58 21:06 21:24
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/14 591 20:08 20:04 20:30 20:17 20:25 21:14 20:57
NCAA Championship 11/22 746 20:06 20:14 20:38 20:39 20:56 20:51 21:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 74.9% 25.9 607 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.5 5.5 7.1 7.9 8.6 12.4
Region Championship 100% 5.5 176 0.7 8.8 19.8 25.2 20.6 12.8 7.0 3.7 1.2 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mackenzie Chojnacky 81.0% 90.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Brooke Tullis 75.5% 126.6 0.0 0.0
Cara DeAngelis 74.9% 181.7
Janelle Noe 74.9% 185.8
Liz Weiler 74.9% 193.8
Priscilla Timmons 74.9% 210.2
Megan Gaysunas 74.9% 222.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mackenzie Chojnacky 16.7 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.8 6.0 6.9 5.9 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.2 3.1 3.2 2.5
Brooke Tullis 24.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.5 5.2 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.7
Cara DeAngelis 41.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Janelle Noe 43.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0
Liz Weiler 47.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7
Priscilla Timmons 56.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Megan Gaysunas 63.9 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.7% 100.0% 0.7 0.7 2
3 8.8% 100.0% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 8.8 3
4 19.8% 98.8% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 19.6 4
5 25.2% 95.7% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.4 4.1 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.1 24.1 5
6 20.6% 82.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.7 16.9 6
7 12.8% 36.3% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 8.2 4.7 7
8 7.0% 3.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.7 0.2 8
9 3.7% 0.5% 0.0 3.7 0.0 9
10 1.2% 1.2 10
11 0.3% 0.3 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 74.9% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.2 7.8 9.7 10.6 10.5 9.1 8.8 7.0 25.1 0.7 74.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
UCLA 62.5% 1.0 0.6
Boston College 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 1.0 0.5
Notre Dame 49.0% 1.0 0.5
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 1.0 0.4
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.4% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 9.0