Virginia
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
56  Morgan Kelly SR 19:51
69  Sarah Fakler SO 19:56
78  Iona Lake JR 19:57
200  Kathleen Stevens SR 20:23
262  Cleo Boyd JR 20:32
388  Sara Sargent SO 20:47
433  Laura Pierce FR 20:51
725  Meghan Rebholz FR 21:14
976  Brooke Grice FR 21:32
1,485  Rebecca Salter FR 22:03
1,923  Kendall Cowne SO 22:30
National Rank #15 of 341
Southeast Region Rank #2 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.1%
Most Likely Finish 11th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 4.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 29.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 82.1%


Regional Champion 29.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Morgan Kelly Sarah Fakler Iona Lake Kathleen Stevens Cleo Boyd Sara Sargent Laura Pierce Meghan Rebholz Brooke Grice Rebecca Salter Kendall Cowne
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/26 458 20:13 19:31 19:58 20:49 20:24 20:15 20:24 20:57 21:34 22:31
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 498 19:36 19:45 19:55 20:31 21:08 20:49 21:29
ACC Championships 10/31 556 20:00 19:54 19:59 20:26 20:52 21:13 20:54 21:00 21:30 22:03
Southeast Region Championships 11/14 499 19:50 20:04 19:49 20:28 20:32 21:15 21:07
NCAA Championship 11/22 533 19:42 20:44 20:07 20:10 20:25 20:33 22:04





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.1% 14.4 408 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.4 4.4 6.3 5.8 6.7 5.9 6.1 6.5 5.4 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.1 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3
Region Championship 100% 2.3 84 29.2 30.3 24.2 13.3 2.8 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Kelly 99.6% 59.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7
Sarah Fakler 99.1% 70.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
Iona Lake 99.1% 75.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
Kathleen Stevens 99.1% 147.1
Cleo Boyd 99.1% 171.1
Sara Sargent 99.1% 203.7
Laura Pierce 99.1% 211.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Kelly 5.5 8.6 8.6 9.4 10.0 9.2 8.6 8.2 7.3 5.6 5.2 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3
Sarah Fakler 7.3 3.4 6.0 6.4 7.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.1 5.6 4.8 3.8 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4
Iona Lake 8.2 2.8 3.9 5.4 6.3 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.3 6.4 5.4 4.1 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2
Kathleen Stevens 24.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.2
Cleo Boyd 33.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.8
Sara Sargent 48.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7
Laura Pierce 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 29.2% 100.0% 29.2 29.2 1
2 30.3% 100.0% 30.3 30.3 2
3 24.2% 100.0% 14.8 7.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 24.2 3
4 13.3% 99.8% 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.2 4
5 2.8% 75.2% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 5
6 0.2% 9.1% 0.0 0.2 0.0 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 99.1% 29.2 30.3 14.8 11.8 4.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.9 59.5 39.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Vanderbilt 99.9% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 98.1% 1.0 1.0
Boise State 97.6% 1.0 1.0
Washington 90.1% 1.0 0.9
North Carolina St. 88.8% 1.0 0.9
Iona 84.9% 1.0 0.8
Ohio State 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 82.3% 2.0 1.6
Toledo 67.0% 1.0 0.7
Arizona State 64.7% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 62.5% 1.0 0.6
Boston College 55.0% 2.0 1.1
Providence 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 52.5% 2.0 1.1
Notre Dame 49.0% 2.0 1.0
Dartmouth 48.8% 1.0 0.5
BYU 42.7% 1.0 0.4
SMU 18.3% 1.0 0.2
Virginia Tech 4.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Furman 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.9
Minimum 8.0
Maximum 21.0