Providence
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
11  Sarah Collins JR 19:28
56  Catarina Rocha JR 19:49
67  Lauren Mullins SR 19:54
97  Katie Lembo SO 20:00
142  Brianna Ilarda SO 20:10
271  Molly Keating SR 20:30
429  Emily Bushey JR 20:48
560  Mackenzie Barry SO 20:59
1,628  Keelin Hollowood JR 22:18
2,410  Kaitlyn LiPuma FR 23:16
National Rank #5 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #1 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 1.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 40.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 73.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 97.9%


Regional Champion 91.5%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sarah Collins Catarina Rocha Lauren Mullins Katie Lembo Brianna Ilarda Molly Keating Emily Bushey Mackenzie Barry Keelin Hollowood Kaitlyn LiPuma
Coast to Coast Battle in Beantown 09/25 347 19:39 19:37 19:57 20:13 20:07 20:49 20:18 22:15
NEICAAA Championship 10/10 1330 21:10 22:28 23:44
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 401 19:20 19:50 19:55 20:03 20:42 21:05 20:55
Big East Conference Championships 10/31 438 19:42 20:11 19:58 20:01 20:27 20:40 20:43 20:57 22:16 22:50
Northeast Region Championships 11/13 346 19:31 19:58 20:01 19:55 20:11 21:21 22:05
NCAA Championship 11/21 311 19:27 19:42 19:52 20:04 20:11 20:17 20:38





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 7.8 279 1.0 9.3 11.0 10.2 9.3 7.3 7.5 6.4 6.7 5.0 4.4 3.7 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.1 51 91.5 7.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 100% 18.8 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Catarina Rocha 100.0% 59.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8
Lauren Mullins 100.0% 72.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
Katie Lembo 100.0% 91.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Brianna Ilarda 100.0% 119.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Molly Keating 100.0% 175.5
Emily Bushey 100.0% 213.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 1.6 38.3 20.8 13.1 8.9 6.5 4.0 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Catarina Rocha 7.2 1.4 4.9 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.7 8.7 9.0 7.8 6.3 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1
Lauren Mullins 9.1 0.5 2.3 4.2 5.4 6.1 7.1 7.8 7.7 8.4 7.2 7.2 5.8 5.7 5.2 3.7 3.8 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3
Katie Lembo 11.7 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.1 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.6 4.8 3.6 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9
Brianna Ilarda 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.5 4.9 5.9 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.5 5.9 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.5 2.6 2.3
Molly Keating 28.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.8
Emily Bushey 47.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 91.5% 100.0% 91.5 91.5 1
2 7.9% 100.0% 7.9 7.9 2
3 0.5% 100.0% 0.4 0.1 0.5 3
4 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4
5 0.0% 0.0 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 100.0% 91.5 7.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Boise State 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Washington 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 96.5% 2.0 1.9
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 1.0 0.9
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
Georgetown 83.8% 2.0 1.7
BYU 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Lipscomb 6.0% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 2.0 0.1
Dartmouth 2.9% 2.0 0.1
Boston College 1.4% 2.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 16.1
Minimum 8.0
Maximum 23.0