Columbia
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
146  Natalie Tanner JR 20:10
180  Olivia Sadler SR 20:15
273  Leila Mantilla SR 20:31
470  Pegah Kamrani JR 20:52
489  Emily Acker FR 20:54
678  Libby Kokes FR 21:11
740  Erin Melly SO 21:15
743  Henna Rustami JR 21:15
857  Samantha Siler JR 21:24
884  Emily Krasinski SR 21:26
959  Nell Crosby SO 21:32
976  Chloe Binczyk SO 21:33
1,222  Victoria Ingram SO 21:51
1,255  Julia Sienski FR 21:53
1,430  Charlotte Pierce SO 22:05
2,050  Sarah Macdonald FR 22:46
National Rank #41 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #5 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 30.8%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 2.8%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 57.7%
Top 10 in Regional 98.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Natalie Tanner Olivia Sadler Leila Mantilla Pegah Kamrani Emily Acker Libby Kokes Erin Melly Henna Rustami Samantha Siler Emily Krasinski Nell Crosby
Paul Short Invitational (Brown) 10/02 1255 21:53
Princeton Inter Regional 10/03 842 20:21 20:32 20:34 20:52 20:50 21:16 21:13 21:15 21:26
Metropolitan Championship 10/09 1254
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 670 19:51 20:04 20:24 21:11 20:34 21:22
Leopard Invitational 10/17 1190 21:16 21:29 21:40 21:19 21:30
Ivy League Championships 10/30 782 20:31 20:09 20:27 20:39 21:06 20:58 21:15 20:59 21:14 21:34 21:22
Northeast Region Championships 11/13 868 20:05 20:30 20:50 20:55 21:10 21:20 21:26





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 30.8% 26.2 626 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.7 3.0 4.2 4.0 4.9 1.4
Region Championship 100% 5.4 177 0.2 5.3 17.3 18.5 16.3 13.0 11.2 8.5 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Tanner 33.5% 102.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Olivia Sadler 32.1% 117.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leila Mantilla 30.8% 159.5
Pegah Kamrani 30.8% 207.2
Emily Acker 30.8% 210.4
Libby Kokes 30.8% 234.8
Erin Melly 30.8% 238.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Tanner 16.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 4.5 4.6 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.6
Olivia Sadler 18.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 5.9 4.8 5.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.2
Leila Mantilla 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.0 4.0
Pegah Kamrani 51.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7
Emily Acker 53.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7
Libby Kokes 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Erin Melly 86.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 5.3% 100.0% 5.3 5.3 2
3 17.3% 68.5% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 5.4 11.8 3
4 18.5% 57.5% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 7.9 10.7 4
5 16.3% 14.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 13.9 2.4 5
6 13.0% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.7 0.3 6
7 11.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.1 7
8 8.5% 8.5 8
9 5.0% 5.0 9
10 2.9% 2.9 10
11 1.2% 1.2 11
12 0.3% 0.3 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 0.0% 0.0 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 30.8% 0.2 5.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.8 3.7 69.2 5.5 25.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 2.0 0.1
Dartmouth 2.9% 2.0 0.1
Penn 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 11.0