North Carolina
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
64  Hannah Christen SO 19:53
94  Caroline Alcorta SO 20:00
102  Josette Norris SO 20:01
328  Stella Radford FR 20:39
571  Morgan Ilse FR 21:01
747  Lucy Biles FR 21:16
871  Mattie Webb SR 21:25
1,101  Doria Kosmala JR 21:42
1,350  Emma Astrike-Davis SO 21:59
National Rank #24 of 339
Southeast Region Rank #4 of 49
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 45.9%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 16.4%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 97.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Hannah Christen Caroline Alcorta Josette Norris Stella Radford Morgan Ilse Lucy Biles Mattie Webb Doria Kosmala Emma Astrike-Davis
Princeton Inter Regional 10/03 743 20:18 20:23 20:12 20:43 20:53 20:52 21:28 21:36 21:55
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 681 20:04 20:02 20:10 20:49 21:07 21:33 21:14
ACC Championships 10/30 617 20:06 19:50 19:56 20:42 21:07 21:20 21:28 21:34 22:05
Southeast Region Championships 11/13 468 19:29 19:53 19:47 20:17 20:59 21:37 22:09





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 45.9% 22.0 534 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.3
Region Championship 100% 3.6 152 0.2 3.0 46.7 40.7 7.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Christen 52.7% 66.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5
Caroline Alcorta 48.2% 87.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Josette Norris 47.6% 91.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Stella Radford 45.9% 194.2
Morgan Ilse 45.9% 229.3
Lucy Biles 45.9% 242.4
Mattie Webb 45.9% 247.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Christen 12.0 0.7 1.6 1.8 2.8 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.7 6.6 6.0 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.9
Caroline Alcorta 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.5 4.4 3.5 3.7 2.4 2.4
Josette Norris 16.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.3 3.1 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.3 4.4 4.2 3.6 2.9 2.4
Stella Radford 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Morgan Ilse 63.6 0.1 0.0 0.1
Lucy Biles 82.0
Mattie Webb 94.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 3.0% 100.0% 3.0 3.0 2
3 46.7% 47.1% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.3 24.7 22.0 3
4 40.7% 43.6% 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.4 22.9 17.7 4
5 7.4% 39.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 4.4 2.9 5
6 1.5% 1.5 6
7 0.5% 0.5 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
Total 100% 45.9% 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.6 5.1 6.3 6.4 6.3 5.3 4.5 4.0 54.1 3.2 42.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 2.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 10.0