Men - Women
Tournament Championship Summary
2015 - 2016 - 2017



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.


RankSchool Regional ChampionTop 5Top 10Top 20Advance to Nationals
1 Colorado Mountain 78.1% 98.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 Stanford West 5.2% 64.2% 89.2% 98.6% 99.2%
3 Washington West 6.9% 67.6% 91.3% 99.5% 99.9%
4 Oregon West 2.2% 45.5% 80.6% 97.2% 98.3%
5 North Carolina St. Southeast 2.2% 42.6% 74.5% 97.0% 100.0%
6 Portland West 1.6% 28.2% 62.0% 92.1% 96.5%
7 Providence Northeast 1.4% 27.4% 58.7% 91.9% 100.0%
8 Michigan Great Lakes 0.6% 23.2% 56.9% 93.7% 99.1%
9 San Francisco West 0.6% 20.6% 50.3% 86.3% 93.6%
10 Penn State Mid-Atlantic 0.5% 13.7% 45.9% 91.0% 99.9%
11 Michigan State Great Lakes 0.4% 14.7% 42.2% 84.8% 97.5%
12 New Mexico Mountain 0.1% 10.6% 39.5% 89.8% 98.7%
13 Arkansas South Central 0.4% 18.2% 49.6% 88.4% 99.8%
14 Baylor South Central 2.2% 20.6% 80.9% 99.2%
15 Notre Dame Great Lakes 3.0% 17.9% 70.2% 93.4%
16 Iowa State Midwest 4.7% 19.1% 64.8% 99.1%
17 Eastern Michigan Great Lakes 0.1% 2.9% 17.2% 61.7% 90.3%
18 BYU Mountain 0.1% 2.9% 14.3% 54.6% 88.6%
19 Utah Mountain 1.5% 8.6% 45.3% 85.2%
20 Harvard Northeast 1.2% 9.5% 43.6% 81.3%
21 Boise State West 1.2% 8.6% 42.7% 75.6%
22 UCLA West 1.3% 9.4% 37.5% 68.6%
23 Air Force Mountain 0.5% 3.8% 26.0% 40.1%
24 Wisconsin Great Lakes 0.1% 1.2% 6.2% 29.0% 47.5%
25 California West 0.5% 3.5% 29.0% 55.6%
26 Mississippi South 1.1% 7.3% 36.0% 96.2%
27 Oklahoma State Midwest 0.5% 3.4% 27.0% 68.0%
28 Villanova Mid-Atlantic 0.2% 1.6% 21.6% 72.2%
29 Miss State South 0.2% 2.0% 20.8% 84.8%
30 Minnesota Midwest 0.1% 0.8% 12.7% 40.9%
31 Yale Northeast 0.2% 2.8% 22.9% 92.2%
32 Penn Mid-Atlantic 0.1% 0.9% 12.2% 76.2%
33 SMU South Central 0.4% 7.9% 20.8%
34 Missouri Midwest 0.1% 6.3% 29.0%
35 Colorado St. Mountain 0.7% 6.0% 14.2%
36 Rice South Central 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 8.3%
37 West Virginia Mid-Atlantic 0.2% 5.9% 41.8%
38 Florida South 0.4% 5.1% 29.1%
39 Arizona West 0.6% 2.6%
40 Ohio State Great Lakes 0.3% 2.7% 10.4%
41 Kansas Midwest 0.2% 2.0% 7.8%
42 Cal Poly West 1.2% 6.3%
43 Butler Great Lakes 0.5% 3.0%
44 Coastal Carolina Southeast
45 Furman Southeast 2.0% 25.1%
46 Purdue Great Lakes 0.1% 0.6%
47 Indiana Great Lakes 0.1% 0.2% 2.3%
48 Georgetown Mid-Atlantic 0.2% 4.2% 37.9%
49 Weber State Mountain 0.0%
50 Virginia Southeast 0.2% 1.3% 24.8%
51 Texas South Central 0.4% 3.1%
52 Kentucky Southeast 0.2% 11.3%
53 Syracuse Northeast 0.4% 6.3%
54 Tulsa Midwest 0.1% 0.3% 5.0%
55 UTEP Mountain
56 Eastern Kentucky Southeast 0.3% 12.1%
57 Louisville Southeast 0.3% 9.3%
58 Alabama South 0.5% 8.9%
59 Vanderbilt South 0.1% 0.3% 7.2%
60 Utah State Mountain 0.1% 0.4%
61 Brown Northeast 0.2% 2.8%
62 William and Mary Southeast 0.1% 4.2%
63 Cornell Northeast 0.1% 0.6% 7.4%
64 Dartmouth Northeast 3.3%
65 Oregon State West 0.1%
66 Northern Arizona Mountain 0.1% 0.2%
67 Boston College Northeast
68 Duke Southeast 3.1%
69 Florida State South 0.2%
70 Clemson Southeast 0.1%
71 Wyoming Mountain 0.3%
72 Oklahoma Midwest 1.6%
73 Northwestern Midwest
74 Auburn South 0.5%
75 Stony Brook Northeast 0.2%
76 Pittsburgh Mid-Atlantic 0.6%
77 New Hampshire Northeast 0.0%
78 Arizona State West
79 Virginia Tech Southeast 0.2% 7.6%
80 Georgia South 0.1% 0.1%
81 Bucknell Mid-Atlantic 0.5%
82 Wake Forest Southeast 2.4%
83 Northern Illinois Midwest 0.1%
84 Memphis South
85 Wichita State Midwest
86 Samford South
87 Bowling Green Great Lakes
88 Texas A&M South Central
89 Columbia Northeast 0.1%
90 James Madison Southeast
91 UCF South
92 Eastern Washington West
93 Elon Southeast 0.1%
94 North Carolina Southeast
95 Iona Northeast 0.0%
96 Nevada Mountain
97 Central Michigan Great Lakes
98 Idaho West
99 Texas Tech Mountain
100 Gonzaga West
101 Charlotte Southeast
102 Marquette Great Lakes
103 Washington St. West
104 Princeton Mid-Atlantic
105 South Dakota St. Midwest
106 TCU South Central
107 UC Santa Barbara West
108 Duquesne Mid-Atlantic
109 Oakland Great Lakes
110 Northern Iowa Midwest
111 Appalachian State Southeast
112 North Florida South
113 Buffalo Northeast
114 Lipscomb South
115 Miami (Ohio) Great Lakes
116 Toledo Great Lakes
117 San Jose St. West
118 Hawaii West
119 Tennessee-Martin South
120 Mid. Tenn. State South
121 Southern Utah Mountain
122 Quinnipiac Northeast
123 Maryland Mid-Atlantic
124 Iowa Midwest
125 Illinois Midwest
126 South Alabama South
127 Lamar South Central
128 UC Riverside West
129 Bradley Midwest
130 Fresno State West
131 Lehigh Mid-Atlantic
132 SE Missouri Midwest
133 Dayton Great Lakes
134 Murray State Southeast
135 Xavier (Ohio) Great Lakes
136 UC Davis West
137 UMass Amherst Northeast
138 Indiana State Great Lakes
139 Montana State Mountain
140 Georgia Tech South
141 Campbell Southeast
142 South Dakota Midwest
143 Kansas State Midwest
144 George Washington Mid-Atlantic
145 Jacksonville South
146 North Dakota St. Midwest
147 Southern Miss. South
148 Tulane South Central
149 UMBC Mid-Atlantic
150 Loyola Marymount West
151 North Texas South Central
152 Stephen F. Austin South Central
153 Cal St. Fullerton West
154 Davidson Southeast
155 Northeastern Northeast
156 Montana Mountain
157 Creighton Midwest
158 Western Michigan Great Lakes
159 Eastern Illinois Midwest
160 Nebraska Midwest
161 Canisius Northeast
162 Army West Point Northeast
163 Vermont Northeast
164 Ohio U. Great Lakes
165 Utah Valley Mountain
166 San Diego St. West
167 LSU South Central
168 Connecticut Northeast
169 Richmond Southeast
170 Illinois State Midwest
171 Belmont South
172 UAB South
173 St. Mary's (Cal.) West
174 Holy Cross Northeast
175 IUPUI Great Lakes
176 San Diego West
177 Col. of Charleston Southeast
178 Towson Mid-Atlantic
179 St. John's Northeast
180 East Carolina Southeast
181 Sam Houston St. South Central
182 Seattle U. West
183 Navy Mid-Atlantic
184 South Carolina Southeast
185 Liberty Southeast
186 Loyola (Ill.) Midwest
187 Monmouth Mid-Atlantic
188 Houston South Central
189 Cincinnati Great Lakes
190 St. Joseph's (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
191 George Mason Southeast
192 Delaware Mid-Atlantic
193 Temple Mid-Atlantic
194 Fordham Northeast
195 Marist Northeast
196 Portland State West
197 Tennessee South
198 South Florida South
199 Saint Louis Midwest
200 Boston U. Northeast
201 Albany Northeast
202 Kent State Great Lakes
203 Kennesaw State South
204 New Mexico St. Mountain
205 Sacramento St. West
206 Tennessee Tech South
207 USC West
208 UT-Rio Grande Valley South Central
209 Sacred Heart Northeast
210 Rutgers Mid-Atlantic
211 St. Francis (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
212 Wright State Great Lakes
213 Manhattan Northeast
214 SIU-Edwardsville Midwest
215 VCU Southeast
216 Florida A&M South
217 Ball State Great Lakes
218 Northern Colorado Mountain
219 Siena Northeast
220 High Point Southeast
221 American Mid-Atlantic
222 Akron Great Lakes
223 UMKC Midwest
224 Morehead State Southeast
225 Chattanooga South
226 Wis.-Milwaukee Great Lakes
227 Rhode Island Northeast
228 Idaho State Mountain
229 UC Irvine West
230 Binghamton Northeast
231 Georgia State South
232 Central Connecticut Northeast
233 Marshall Mid-Atlantic
234 Loyola (Md.) Mid-Atlantic
235 DePaul Midwest
236 East Tenn. St. South
237 Southern Illinois Midwest
238 Youngstown St. Great Lakes
239 Hartford Northeast
240 UNLV West
241 Nebraska-Omaha Midwest
242 Central Arkansas South Central
243 McNeese State South Central
244 Illinois-Chicago Midwest
245 La Salle Mid-Atlantic
246 Northern Kentucky Southeast
247 Texas A&M-CC South Central
248 Drake Midwest
249 Florida Atlantic South
250 IPFW Great Lakes
251 North Dakota Midwest
252 Detroit Great Lakes
253 Texas-Arlington South Central
254 Missouri State Midwest
255 Arkansas State South Central
256 Maine Northeast
257 Bryant Northeast
258 Winthrop Southeast
259 Miami South
260 Georgia Southern South
261 Cal St. Northridge West
262 Santa Clara West
263 Western Carolina Southeast
264 Wofford Southeast
265 Hofstra Northeast
266 UTSA South Central
267 Western Kentucky Southeast
268 Florida Gulf Coast South
269 Lafayette Mid-Atlantic
270 Texas State South Central
271 Rider Mid-Atlantic
272 Cleveland St. Great Lakes
273 UNC-Asheville Southeast
274 Mercer South
275 UNC-Greensboro Southeast
276 Maryland-Eastern Shore Mid-Atlantic
277 Seton Hall Mid-Atlantic
278 Colgate Northeast
279 Troy South
280 Pacific West
281 Evansville Great Lakes
282 Oral Roberts Midwest
283 Fairfield Northeast
284 Long Beach St. West
285 Radford Southeast
286 Va. Military Institute Southeast
287 Pepperdine West
288 UNC-Wilmington Southeast
289 Hampton Southeast
290 Alabama State South
291 Stetson South
292 Houston Baptist South Central
293 UL-Lafayette South Central
294 Western Illinois Midwest
295 Wis.-Green Bay Great Lakes
296 Valparaiso Great Lakes
297 Bethune-Cookman South
298 Jacksonville St. South
299 Robert Morris Mid-Atlantic
300 Mississippi Valley South
301 Niagara Northeast
302 Arkansas-Little Rock South Central
303 N. Carolina A&T Southeast
304 Norfolk State Southeast
305 Presbyterian Southeast
306 USC Upstate Southeast
307 Citadel Southeast
308 St. Francis (N.Y.) Northeast
309 UL-Monroe South Central
310 Gardner-Webb Southeast
311 Morgan State Mid-Atlantic
312 Mount St. Mary's Mid-Atlantic
313 Florida Int'l South
314 Charleston Southern Southeast
315 St. Bonaventure Northeast
316 Louisiana Tech South Central
317 New Jersey Institute Mid-Atlantic
318 Cal St. Bakersfield West
319 SE Louisiana South Central
320 Austin Peay South
321 Prairie View South Central
322 Wagner Northeast
323 Texas Southern South Central
324 Longwood Southeast
325 Howard Mid-Atlantic
326 Tennessee St. South
327 LIU Brooklyn Northeast
328 Southern South Central
329 Northwestern St. South Central
330 South Carolina St. Southeast
331 Coppin State Mid-Atlantic
332 Alcorn State South
333 Fairleigh Dickinson Mid-Atlantic
334 Grambling South Central
335 St. Peter's Mid-Atlantic
336 Delaware State Mid-Atlantic
337 Chicago State Midwest
338 Arkansas-Pine Bluff South Central
339 Jackson State South
340 Alabama A&M South
341 N.C. Central Southeast
342 New Orleans South Central
343 Nicholls State South Central
344 Savannah State South
345 100.0%
346 100.0%
347 100.0%
348 100.0%
349 100.0%
350 100.0%
351 100.0%
352 100.0%
353 100.0%
354 100.0%
355 100.0%
356 100.0%
357 100.0%
358 100.0%
359 100.0%
360 100.0%
361 100.0%
362 100.0%
363 100.0%
364 100.0%
365 100.0%
366 100.0%
367 100.0%
368 100.0%
369 100.0%
370 100.0%
371 100.0%
372 100.0%
373 100.0%
374 100.0%
375 100.0%
376 100.0%
377 100.0%
378 100.0%
379 100.0%
380 100.0%
381 100.0%
382 100.0%
383 100.0%
384 100.0%
385 100.0%
386 100.0%
387 100.0%
388 100.0%
389 100.0%
390 100.0%
391 100.0%
392 100.0%
393 100.0%
394 100.0%
395 100.0%
396 100.0%
397 100.0%
398 100.0%
399 100.0%
400 100.0%