Montana State
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
396  Caroline Hardin JR 20:41
400  Kelsi Lasota JR 20:42
509  Patricia Carlson FR 20:51
577  Samantha Kelderman FR 20:57
600  Anna French SO 20:59
793  Joby Rosenleaf FR 21:14
1,069  Jaycie Schmalz FR 21:32
1,228  Madison Liechty SO 21:43
1,331  Chiara Warner SR 21:50
1,335  Layne Oliver JR 21:50
2,044  Morgan Jones JR 22:35
National Rank #90 of 348
Mountain Region Rank #11 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.2%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.2%
Top 10 in Regional 54.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Caroline Hardin Kelsi Lasota Patricia Carlson Samantha Kelderman Anna French Joby Rosenleaf Jaycie Schmalz Madison Liechty Chiara Warner Layne Oliver Morgan Jones
BRC/MSU Classic 09/16 1016 20:51 20:43 21:03 21:00 20:53 21:36 21:31 21:27 22:16 21:52 21:36
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/14 950 21:02 20:34 20:57 20:46 20:37 21:14 21:29 21:49 22:05 23:47
Big Sky Championship 10/28 880 20:34 20:13 20:38 20:58 21:09 21:09 21:40 21:22
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 923 20:16 20:44 20:44 21:05 21:23 21:00 22:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.2% 29.0 716 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 10.8 321 0.2 0.9 1.8 8.1 14.6 29.4 17.3 10.5 6.0 4.3 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caroline Hardin 0.6% 161.5
Kelsi Lasota 0.4% 152.5
Patricia Carlson 0.2% 192.5
Samantha Kelderman 0.2% 191.0
Anna French 0.2% 212.0
Joby Rosenleaf 0.2% 231.0
Jaycie Schmalz 0.2% 245.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caroline Hardin 54.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Kelsi Lasota 54.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Patricia Carlson 65.6 0.1 0.1 0.1
Samantha Kelderman 72.1 0.1
Anna French 75.0 0.1
Joby Rosenleaf 90.3
Jaycie Schmalz 106.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 0.2% 33.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 5
6 0.9% 16.7% 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 6
7 1.8% 1.8 7
8 8.1% 8.1 8
9 14.6% 14.6 9
10 29.4% 29.4 10
11 17.3% 17.3 11
12 10.5% 10.5 12
13 6.0% 6.0 13
14 4.3% 4.3 14
15 3.5% 3.5 15
16 1.9% 1.9 16
17 1.1% 1.1 17
18 0.6% 0.6 18
19 0.2% 0.2 19
20 20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0 0.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Total 0.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 1.0