Oregon
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
6  Katie Rainsberger SO 19:09
18  Lilli Burdon SO 19:23
37  Carmela Cardama Baez JR 19:36
54  Jessica Hull JR 19:43
94  Alli Cash SR 19:57
114  Emma Abrahamson SR 20:00
280  Judy Pendergast SO 20:28
National Rank #4 of 348
West Region Rank #2 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 13.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 77.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 97.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 26.6%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Katie Rainsberger Lilli Burdon Carmela Cardama Baez Jessica Hull Alli Cash Emma Abrahamson Judy Pendergast
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 106 19:01 19:19 19:27 19:28 19:44 20:49
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 193 19:16 19:26 19:50 19:32 20:02 20:26
West Region Championships 11/10 238 19:11 19:23 19:32 20:07 20:20 20:07 20:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 4.1 182 13.0 15.6 18.5 17.8 12.4 8.3 5.7 3.3 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.1 73 26.6 43.9 20.5 7.5 1.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Rainsberger 100% 9.7 1.9 4.2 4.9 7.4 6.4 6.1 5.3 4.7 6.0 4.8 4.3 4.4 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5
Lilli Burdon 100% 22.9 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.0 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.6 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.7 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.9
Carmela Cardama Baez 100% 43.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.1
Jessica Hull 100% 57.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0
Alli Cash 100% 93.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Emma Abrahamson 100% 104.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Judy Pendergast 100% 183.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Rainsberger 3.6 9.6 16.4 15.5 13.8 10.7 7.9 7.2 5.1 3.7 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lilli Burdon 7.9 1.2 3.2 5.0 9.0 6.8 8.9 8.2 8.6 7.5 7.1 6.1 4.5 4.7 4.2 2.6 3.1 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.4
Carmela Cardama Baez 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.1 3.6 5.0 5.2 6.3 5.0 6.8 6.7 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.9 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.2 2.6 1.8 2.3
Jessica Hull 17.6 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.6 4.9 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.4 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.6 3.0 2.5
Alli Cash 27.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.8 3.4 2.6 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.5 4.0
Emma Abrahamson 29.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.2
Judy Pendergast 53.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 26.6% 100.0% 26.6 26.6 1
2 43.9% 100.0% 43.9 43.9 2
3 20.5% 100.0% 10.7 5.9 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 20.5 3
4 7.5% 100.0% 2.9 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5 4
5 1.5% 100.0% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 5
6 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 100.0% 26.6 43.9 10.7 8.8 6.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 70.5 29.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 98.8% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 97.2% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 96.9% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.0% 1.0 1.0
Utah State 89.9% 1.0 0.9
BYU 82.0% 2.0 1.6
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 45.5% 1.0 0.5
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Louisville 33.4% 1.0 0.3
Virginia Tech 27.9% 1.0 0.3
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Northern Arizona 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Duke 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Arizona 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.6% 2.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 12.0
Minimum 6.0
Maximum 17.0