Samford
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
86  Karisa Nelson SR 19:54
155  Anna Long SR 20:09
295  Haley Ward SR 20:30
456  Mary Grace Strozier SO 20:47
715  Kathryn Foreman SO 21:09
922  Shian Mallory SO 21:23
947  Emma Garner SR 21:25
1,305  Abbey Zane FR 21:48
1,674  Allie Nelson FR 22:11
2,373  Sarah Fairchild SO 23:04
2,676  Lauren Granier SO 23:36
National Rank #43 of 348
South Region Rank #3 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 11.5%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.7%


Regional Champion 1.7%
Top 5 in Regional 88.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Karisa Nelson Anna Long Haley Ward Mary Grace Strozier Kathryn Foreman Shian Mallory Emma Garner Abbey Zane Allie Nelson Sarah Fairchild Lauren Granier
Falcon Classic 09/16 1340 23:11 21:23 22:03 23:32 23:58
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 807 20:13 20:07 20:36 20:55 21:15 21:36 22:25
Crimson Classic 10/13 847 20:06 20:58 20:21 20:43 21:26 22:02 22:03 22:43 24:06
Southern Conference Championship 10/28 743 19:48 20:06 20:49 20:38 21:22 21:20 21:46 21:51 22:11
South Region Championships 11/10 560 19:30 19:48 20:05 20:45 20:57 21:38 22:08





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 11.5% 25.0 597 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.7
Region Championship 100% 3.8 146 1.7 8.9 40.8 24.1 12.7 6.2 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karisa Nelson 76.1% 80.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Anna Long 36.6% 112.4
Haley Ward 12.5% 162.4
Mary Grace Strozier 11.5% 194.0
Kathryn Foreman 11.5% 227.9
Shian Mallory 11.5% 241.8
Emma Garner 11.5% 241.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karisa Nelson 4.5 7.1 8.8 13.2 15.8 11.1 10.0 6.2 6.2 4.6 3.8 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Anna Long 10.0 0.5 0.9 2.8 4.8 6.7 7.4 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.1 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.0
Haley Ward 23.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.3 3.4 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.2 3.2 3.9
Mary Grace Strozier 38.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.1
Kathryn Foreman 64.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Shian Mallory 83.5 0.1
Emma Garner 85.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1.7% 100.0% 1.7 1.7 1
2 8.9% 100.0% 8.9 8.9 2
3 40.8% 2.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 39.9 0.9 3
4 24.1% 0.2% 0.1 24.0 0.1 4
5 12.7% 12.7 5
6 6.2% 6.2 6
7 3.4% 3.4 7
8 1.9% 1.9 8
9 0.5% 0.5 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 11.5% 1.7 8.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 88.6 10.5 1.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas A&M 2.7% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0