Furman
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
13  Allie Buchalski SR 19:17
47  Savannah Carnahan SO 19:40
92  Gabrielle Jennings SO 19:55
202  Emma Grace Hurley SO 20:16
300  Grace Dwyer SO 20:31
431  Riley Burr SO 20:44
486  Kristlin Gear FR 20:49
590  Jacquelyn Crow SR 20:58
813  Jennifer Stephenson SO 21:16
984  Emily Lane FR 21:27
1,410  Anna Hayden SO 21:55
2,279  Anisa Burciaga FR 22:55
National Rank #10 of 348
Southeast Region Rank #2 of 50
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.2%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 2.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 32.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 87.3%


Regional Champion 8.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Allie Buchalski Savannah Carnahan Gabrielle Jennings Emma Grace Hurley Grace Dwyer Riley Burr Kristlin Gear Jacquelyn Crow Jennifer Stephenson Emily Lane Anna Hayden
Furman Classic 09/09 524 19:48 19:59 20:27 20:16 21:05 20:25 21:00 20:55 21:07 21:50
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 447 19:32 19:44 20:11 20:18 20:28 20:38 20:53 20:50 21:18 21:41 21:32
Furman Gene Mullin Invite 10/07 1543 21:20 22:01
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 344 19:02 19:37 19:38 20:16 20:34 20:41 20:27
High Point Vertcross 10/13 1217 21:22 21:13 21:18 21:54
Southern Conference Championship 10/28 447 19:24 19:52 20:02 20:29 20:24 20:36 20:54 21:28 21:33
Southeast Region Championships 11/10 277 19:08 19:33 19:31 19:54 20:29 20:44 21:24





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.2% 13.4 394 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.2 7.0 8.8 7.9 7.6 7.6 6.3 5.6 5.4 4.5 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.3 101 8.8 62.9 18.7 6.2 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Allie Buchalski 100% 15.7 0.4 1.7 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.8
Savannah Carnahan 98.9% 51.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1
Gabrielle Jennings 98.2% 88.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Emma Grace Hurley 98.2% 151.4
Grace Dwyer 98.2% 188.5
Riley Burr 98.2% 213.3
Kristlin Gear 98.2% 220.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Allie Buchalski 1.8 34.7 18.6 13.5 9.0 6.6 5.7 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Savannah Carnahan 9.2 0.4 2.6 3.8 5.5 5.0 7.2 8.4 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.7 5.4 6.9 5.2 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6
Gabrielle Jennings 15.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.0 4.3 4.9 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.5 8.4 6.1 6.3 4.6 5.0 4.3 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.1
Emma Grace Hurley 27.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.1
Grace Dwyer 41.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.9 1.3 1.6
Riley Burr 56.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Kristlin Gear 61.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 8.8% 100.0% 8.8 8.8 1
2 62.9% 100.0% 62.9 62.9 2
3 18.7% 100.0% 4.7 6.6 4.8 2.1 0.5 0.2 18.7 3
4 6.2% 100.0% 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 6.2 4
5 2.6% 54.9% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.4 5
6 0.7% 28.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 6
7 0.2% 0.2 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
50 50
Total 100% 98.2% 8.8 62.9 4.7 7.5 6.2 3.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.9 71.7 26.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 99.9% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 96.1% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.4% 1.0 0.9
Columbia 78.2% 1.0 0.8
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 45.5% 1.0 0.5
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Louisville 33.4% 1.0 0.3
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Virginia Tech 27.9% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Northern Arizona 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Samford 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Auburn 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 11.8
Minimum 6.0
Maximum 17.0